Department of Water Science and Engineering, IHE-Delft P.O. Box 3015, 2610 DA, Delft, The Netherlands.
Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH, Delft, The Netherlands.
Sci Rep. 2020 Feb 6;10(1):2010. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-58376-x.
The combination of climate change impacts, declining fluvial sediment supply, and heavy human utilization of the coastal zone, arguably the most populated and developed land zone in the world, will very likely lead to massive socio-economic and environmental losses in the coming decades. Effective coastal planning/management strategies that can help circumvent such losses require reliable local scale (<~10 km) projections of coastal change resulting from the integrated effect of climate change driven variations in mean sea level, storm surge, waves, and riverflows. Presently available numerical models are unable to adequately fulfill this need. A new generation of multi-scale, probabilistic coastal change models is urgently needed to comprehensively assess and optimise coastal risk at local scale, enabling risk informed, climate proof adaptation measures that strike a good balance between risk and reward.
气候变化影响、河流泥沙供应减少以及人类对沿海地区的大量利用（沿海地区是世界上人口最密集、经济最发达的陆地区域）的综合作用，很可能在未来几十年导致大规模的社会经济和环境损失。有效的沿海规划/管理策略可以帮助避免这种损失，这些策略需要可靠的本地尺度（~10km）的沿海变化预测，以反映气候变化导致的平均海平面、风暴潮、波浪和河流变化的综合影响。目前可用的数值模型无法充分满足这一需求。迫切需要新一代的多尺度、概率性的沿海变化模型，以便在本地尺度上全面评估和优化沿海风险，从而制定出明智的、适应气候变化的措施，在风险和回报之间取得良好的平衡。
