Student Research Committee, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
J Environ Public Health. 2021 Apr 9;2021:8854446. doi: 10.1155/2021/8854446. eCollection 2021.
Lung cancer accounts for half of all deaths from cancer in Europe and has the highest incidence in Southern Europe. The current study aimed to cluster trend changes of lung cancer incidence in Europe via the growth mixture model.
The dataset included incidence rates of female and male lung cancer per 100,000 for 42 European countries during 1990-2016 compiled from the Gapminder database. The growth mixture model was implemented to recognize different longitudinal patterns and estimate the linear trend of each pattern in Mplus 7.4 software.
The observed overall trend of incidence for female and male lung cancer was raising and falling, respectively, and Iceland was the only country with higher incidence of female versus male lung cancer in 2016. The growth mixture model suggests 3 main patterns for the trend of lung cancer incidence both for males and females. In male lung cancer, a sharp decreasing pattern was detected for 6 countries including Belarus, Estonia, Russia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom; also, a moderately decreasing pattern was observed among the other countries. In female lung cancer, a moderate increasing trend was observed for 8 countries including the United Kingdom, Denmark, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Montenegro, Netherlands, and Norway; the other patterns were categorized into two clusters with slow increasing trends.
Given the raising patterns in the incidence of lung cancer among European females, especially in the United Kingdom, Denmark, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Montenegro, Netherlands, and Norway, urgent effective measures are recommended to be taken.
肺癌在欧洲癌症死亡病例中约占一半，且在南欧的发病率最高。本研究旨在通过增长混合模型对欧洲肺癌发病率的变化趋势进行聚类。
该数据集包含了 1990 年至 2016 年期间来自 Gapminder 数据库的 42 个欧洲国家每 10 万人中女性和男性肺癌发病率的数据。采用增长混合模型来识别不同的纵向模式，并在 Mplus 7.4 软件中估计每个模式的线性趋势。
观察到女性和男性肺癌的总体发病趋势分别为上升和下降，2016 年只有冰岛是女性肺癌发病率高于男性的国家。增长混合模型提示男性和女性肺癌发病率的趋势有 3 种主要模式。在男性肺癌中，白俄罗斯、爱沙尼亚、俄罗斯、斯洛文尼亚、乌克兰和英国等 6 个国家的发病模式呈急剧下降趋势；其他国家的发病模式呈中度下降趋势。在女性肺癌中，英国、丹麦、匈牙利、冰岛、爱尔兰、黑山、荷兰和挪威等 8 个国家的发病模式呈中度上升趋势；其他模式分为两个缓慢上升的聚类。
鉴于欧洲女性肺癌发病率呈上升趋势，特别是在英国、丹麦、匈牙利、冰岛、爱尔兰、黑山、荷兰和挪威，建议采取紧急有效的措施。
