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基于贝叶斯网络模型的高度发达岛屿生态脆弱性影响机制——以长山群岛为例

Impact Mechanism of the Ecological Vulnerability of Highly Developed Islands Based on the Bayesian Network Model-Applied to the Changshan Islands.

作者信息

Qin Keyu, Huang Haijun, Liu Jingya, Yan Liwen, Liu Yanxia, Bi Haibo, Zhang Zehua, Zhang Yi

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China.

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Apr 14;18(8):4150. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18084150.

DOI:10.3390/ijerph18084150
PMID:33919950
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8070947/
Abstract

Islands are one of the most sensitive interfaces between global changes and land and sea dynamic effects, with high sensitivity and low stability. Therefore, under the dynamic coupling effect of human activities and frequent natural disasters, the vulnerability of the ecological environment of islands shows the characteristics of complexity and diversity. For the protection of island ecosystems, a system for the assessment of island ecosystems and studies on the mechanism of island ecological vulnerability are highly crucial. In this study, the North and South Changshan Islands of China were selected as the study area. Considering various impact factors of island ecological vulnerability, the geographical information systems (GIS) spatial analysis, field surveys, data sampling were used to evaluate island ecological vulnerability. The Bayesian network model was used to explore the impact mechanism of ecological vulnerability. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability of the North Changshan Island is higher than that of the South Changshan Island. Among all the indicators, the proportion of net primary productivity (NPP) and the steep slope has the strongest correlation with ecological vulnerability. This study can be used as references in the relevant departments to formulate management policies and promote the sustainable development of islands and their surrounding waters.

摘要

岛屿是全球变化与陆地和海洋动力效应之间最敏感的界面之一，具有高敏感性和低稳定性。因此，在人类活动与频繁自然灾害的动态耦合作用下，岛屿生态环境的脆弱性呈现出复杂多样的特征。对于岛屿生态系统的保护而言，建立岛屿生态系统评估体系以及开展岛屿生态脆弱性机制研究至关重要。本研究选取中国的北长山岛和南长山岛作为研究区域。综合考虑岛屿生态脆弱性的各种影响因素，运用地理信息系统（GIS）空间分析、实地调查、数据采样等方法对岛屿生态脆弱性进行评估。利用贝叶斯网络模型探究生态脆弱性的影响机制。结果表明，北长山岛的生态脆弱性高于南长山岛。在所有指标中，净初级生产力（NPP）占比和陡坡与生态脆弱性的相关性最强。本研究可为相关部门制定管理政策、促进岛屿及其周边海域的可持续发展提供参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/bcdc1a712eaf/ijerph-18-04150-g012.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/4c0d68a4cae3/ijerph-18-04150-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/a55a514ee733/ijerph-18-04150-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/aa42a9572b72/ijerph-18-04150-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/83f525c9cb36/ijerph-18-04150-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/2b9598a1c7e8/ijerph-18-04150-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/03fb4878e290/ijerph-18-04150-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/2292e1d516de/ijerph-18-04150-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/ca8973b87100/ijerph-18-04150-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/0329d24fe08a/ijerph-18-04150-g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/482a9f194717/ijerph-18-04150-g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/76f888b02d31/ijerph-18-04150-g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/bcdc1a712eaf/ijerph-18-04150-g012.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/4c0d68a4cae3/ijerph-18-04150-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/a55a514ee733/ijerph-18-04150-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/aa42a9572b72/ijerph-18-04150-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/83f525c9cb36/ijerph-18-04150-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/2b9598a1c7e8/ijerph-18-04150-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/03fb4878e290/ijerph-18-04150-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/2292e1d516de/ijerph-18-04150-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/ca8973b87100/ijerph-18-04150-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/0329d24fe08a/ijerph-18-04150-g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/482a9f194717/ijerph-18-04150-g010.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/76f888b02d31/ijerph-18-04150-g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5182/8070947/bcdc1a712eaf/ijerph-18-04150-g012.jpg

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Evaluation on island ecological vulnerability and its spatial heterogeneity.海岛生态脆弱性评价及其空间异质性。
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