University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China; Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, PR China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China; Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, PR China; Beijing Municipal Institute of Labor Protection, Beijing 100032, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Sep 1;785:147127. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147127. Epub 2021 Apr 16.
Southern China has suffered from flood disasters for over sixty years, which results in tremendous socio-economic loss. With the development of economy and the improvement of disaster reduction, both the exposure and potential loss of flood disaster are increasing. However, previous studies only focus on risk assessment, few has examined the comparison of potential risk and the actual losses caused by it. To this end, a method combing entropy weight and TOPSIS based on flood data (2008 to 2018) in China's national and provincial disaster database is applied to analysis flood risk and resulting loss in southern China. By using disaster system dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the effect of natural, economic and social factors on flood risk are also examined. Results indicate that: (1) flood risk in southern China is relatively low from 2008 to 2014 and becomes severe since 2016; (2) the resulting losses of flood disasters in southern China are optimistic during most of the selected years in the study period; (3) flood risk is not always in line with the resulting loss; and (4) flood disasters in southern China are categorized into high-risk and low-loss situation, low-risk and high-loss situation, and the situation with the same level of risk and loss. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to assess southern China on a regional scale from both temporal and spatial perspectives, and has compensated for the lack of comparative research on flood risk and the resulting loss. In practice, our findings can protrude the priorities of flood prevention both in flood-prone areas and specific measures, which is conducive to improve the efficiency of resource allocation.
华南地区 60 多年来一直遭受洪水灾害，造成了巨大的社会经济损失。随着经济的发展和减灾能力的提高，洪水灾害的暴露度和潜在损失都在增加。然而，以前的研究只关注风险评估，很少有研究比较潜在风险和实际损失。为此，本研究应用基于中国国家和省级灾害数据库中洪水数据（2008-2018 年）的熵权和 TOPSIS 相结合的方法，分析中国华南地区的洪水风险和由此造成的损失。利用灾害系统的危害、暴露和脆弱性维度，还检验了自然、经济和社会因素对洪水风险的影响。结果表明：（1）2008-2014 年，华南地区洪水风险相对较低，2016 年以来风险加剧；（2）在所研究的大部分年份中，华南地区洪水灾害造成的损失较为乐观；（3）洪水风险并不总是与实际损失相符；（4）华南地区的洪水灾害分为高风险低损失、低风险高损失和风险损失水平相当三种情况。据我们所知，这是首次从时间和空间角度对华南地区进行的区域尺度评估，弥补了洪水风险和实际损失比较研究的不足。在实践中，我们的研究结果可以突出洪水多发地区和具体措施的防洪重点，有利于提高资源配置效率。
