School of Statistics, Huaqiao University, Xiamen 361021, China.
School of Economics and Finance, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 362021, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 3;20(5):4509. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20054509.
Quantifying total economic impacts of flood disaster in a timely manner is essential for flood risk management and sustainable economic growth. This study takes the flood disaster in China's Jiangxi province during the flood season in 2020 as an example, and exploits the input-output method to analyze indirect economic impacts caused by the agricultural direct economic loss. Based on regional IO data and MRIO data, a multi-dimensional econometric analysis was undertaken in terms of inter-regional, multi-regional, and structural decomposition of indirect economic losses. Our study reveals that the indirect economic losses caused by the agricultural sector in other sectors in Jiangxi province were 2.08 times the direct economic losses, of which the manufacturing sector suffered the worst, accounting for 70.11% of the total indirect economic losses. In addition, in terms of demand side and supply side indirect losses, the manufacturing and construction industries were found to be more vulnerable than other industries, and the flood disaster caused the largest indirect economic loss in eastern China. Besides, the supply side losses were significantly higher than the demand side losses, highlighting that the agricultural sector has strong spillover effects on the supply side. Moreover, based on the MRIO data of the years 2012 and 2015, dynamic structural decomposition analysis was undertaken, which showed that changes in the distributional structure appear to be influential in the evaluation of indirect economic losses. The findings highlight the spatial and sectoral heterogeneity of indirect economic losses caused by floods, and have significant implications for disaster mitigation and recovery strategies.
及时量化洪水灾害的总经济影响对于洪水风险管理和可持续经济增长至关重要。本研究以 2020 年中国江西省洪灾为例，利用投入产出法分析了由农业直接经济损失引起的间接经济影响。基于区域投入产出数据和全球投入产出数据，从区域间、多区域和间接经济损失结构分解三个维度对间接经济损失进行了多维计量经济分析。研究结果表明，江西省农业部门对其他部门造成的间接经济损失是直接经济损失的 2.08 倍，其中制造业损失最为严重，占间接总经济损失的 70.11%。此外，从需求侧和供给侧间接损失来看，制造业和建筑业比其他行业更脆弱，东部地区是洪水灾害造成间接经济损失最大的地区。此外，供给侧损失明显高于需求侧损失，这表明农业部门对供给侧具有很强的溢出效应。此外，基于 2012 年和 2015 年的全球投入产出数据进行了动态结构分解分析，结果表明，分配结构的变化似乎对间接经济损失的评估有影响。研究结果突出了洪水造成的间接经济损失在空间和部门上的异质性，对减灾和恢复策略具有重要意义。
