Alshogran Osama Y, Altawalbeh Shoroq M, Al-Azzam Sayer I, Karasneh Reema
Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan.
Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Yarmouk University, Irbid, Jordan.
Ann Med Surg (Lond). 2021 May;65:102319. doi: 10.1016/j.amsu.2021.102319. Epub 2021 Apr 27.
The outbreak of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) has a significant burden on global health and could be associated with significant mortality. Limited information exists about determinants of its fatality worldwide. Thus, this ecological study examined the association of various predictors with Covid-19 fatality.
International data bases of Covid-19 statistics and health metrics available primarily at WHO were reviewed to collect information for 113 countries. The dependent variable was Covid-19 case fatality rate. Independent variables were demographic, social, clinical, economic, heath care and child health factors.
Case fatality rate of Covid-19 varies across countries with an average of 4.2 ± 3.8%, and about half of countries had fatality rate >3.2% (median). Significant relationships were observed between Covid-19 fatality rate and socio-economic, clinical, and health variables at the unadjusted regression analysis. At the multivariate adjusted model, percentage of population with age>60 years was positively associated with Covid-19 fatality (B = 0.032, p = 0.005), while Polio-3 immunization at 1-year old was inversely related (B = -0.057, p = 0.017).
This ecological investigation highlights the higher risk of death among elderly with Covid-19 pandemic and suggests that Polio-3 immunization coverage among 1-year-olds may be associated with better survival. Future research is warranted to validate these findings.
新型冠状病毒（新冠病毒-19）的爆发给全球健康带来了沉重负担，并可能导致较高的死亡率。关于全球范围内其致死因素的信息有限。因此，这项生态学研究考察了各种预测因素与新冠病毒-19致死率之间的关联。
主要查阅了世界卫生组织提供的新冠病毒-19统计数据和健康指标的国际数据库，以收集113个国家的信息。因变量为新冠病毒-19病死率。自变量包括人口统计学、社会、临床、经济、医疗保健和儿童健康因素。
新冠病毒-19的病死率在不同国家有所差异，平均为4.2±3.8%，约一半国家的病死率>3.2%（中位数）。在未调整的回归分析中，观察到新冠病毒-19病死率与社会经济、临床和健康变量之间存在显著关系。在多变量调整模型中，60岁以上人口百分比与新冠病毒-19病死率呈正相关（B = 0.032，p = 0.005），而1岁时的脊髓灰质炎三价疫苗接种率与之呈负相关（B = -0.057，p = 0.017）。
这项生态学调查凸显了新冠疫情期间老年人死亡风险较高，并表明1岁儿童的脊髓灰质炎三价疫苗接种覆盖率可能与更好的生存率相关。有必要开展进一步研究以验证这些发现。
