Mongiardino Koch Nicolás, Garwood Russell J, Parry Luke A
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2021 May 12;288(1950):20210044. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2021.0044. Epub 2021 May 5.
Fossils provide our only direct window into evolutionary events in the distant past. Incorporating them into phylogenetic hypotheses of living clades can help time-calibrate divergences, as well as elucidate macroevolutionary dynamics. However, the effect fossils have on phylogenetic reconstruction from morphology remains controversial. The consequences of explicitly incorporating the stratigraphic ages of fossils using tip-dated inference are also unclear. Here, we use simulations to evaluate the performance of inference methods across different levels of fossil sampling and missing data. Our results show that fossil taxa improve phylogenetic analysis of morphological datasets, even when highly fragmentary. Irrespective of inference method, fossils improve the accuracy of phylogenies and increase the number of resolved nodes. They also induce the collapse of ancient and highly uncertain relationships that tend to be incorrectly resolved when sampling only extant taxa. Furthermore, tip-dated analyses under the fossilized birth-death process outperform undated methods of inference, demonstrating that the stratigraphic ages of fossils contain vital phylogenetic information. Fossils help to extract true phylogenetic signals from morphology, an effect that is mediated by both their distinctive morphology and their temporal information, and their incorporation in total-evidence phylogenetics is necessary to faithfully reconstruct evolutionary history.
化石为我们提供了了解遥远过去进化事件的唯一直接窗口。将它们纳入现存类群的系统发育假说中,有助于对分歧进行时间校准,并阐明宏观进化动态。然而,化石对基于形态学的系统发育重建的影响仍存在争议。使用末梢定年推断法明确纳入化石地层年龄的后果也尚不清楚。在此,我们通过模拟来评估不同化石采样水平和缺失数据情况下推断方法的性能。我们的结果表明,即使化石高度破碎,化石分类群也能改善形态学数据集的系统发育分析。无论采用何种推断方法,化石都能提高系统发育树的准确性,并增加可解析节点的数量。它们还会导致古老且高度不确定的关系瓦解,而仅对现存分类群进行采样时,这些关系往往会被错误解析。此外,在化石出生-死亡过程下的末梢定年分析优于未定年的推断方法,这表明化石的地层年龄包含重要的系统发育信息。化石有助于从形态学中提取真实的系统发育信号,这种效应由其独特的形态和时间信息共同介导,并且将它们纳入全证据系统发育学对于忠实地重建进化历史是必要的。