建立中国江苏省发热伴血小板减少综合征的传播动力学模型。
Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China.
机构信息
Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 172, Jiangsu Rd, Nanjing, 210009, China.
State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361102, Fujian, People's Republic of China.
出版信息
Parasit Vectors. 2021 May 6;14(1):237. doi: 10.1186/s13071-021-04732-3.
BACKGROUND
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease that is regionally distributed in Asia, with high fatality. Constructing the transmission model of SFTS could help provide clues for disease control and fill the gap in research on SFTS models.
METHODS
We built an SFTS transmission dynamics model based on the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model and the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in Jiangsu Province. This model was used to evaluate the effect by cutting off different transmission routes and taking different interventions into account, to offer clues for disease prevention and control.
RESULTS
The transmission model fits the reported data well with a minimum R value of 0.29 and a maximum value of 0.80, P < 0.05. Meanwhile, cutting off the environmental transmission route had the greatest effect on the prevention and control of SFTS, while isolation and shortening the course of the disease did not have much effect.
CONCLUSIONS
The model we have built can be used to simulate the transmission of SFTS to help inform disease control. It is noteworthy that cutting off the environment-to-humans transmission route in the model had the greatest effect on SFTS prevention and control.
背景
严重发热伴血小板减少综合征（SFTS）是一种新发传染病，在亚洲呈区域性分布，病死率高。构建 SFTS 的传播模型有助于为疾病控制提供线索，并填补 SFTS 模型研究的空白。
方法
我们基于易感-暴露-感染-无症状-恢复（SEIAR）模型和江苏省 SFTS 的流行病学特征，构建了 SFTS 传播动力学模型。该模型用于评估通过切断不同传播途径和采取不同干预措施的效果，为疾病预防和控制提供线索。
结果
传输模型与报告数据拟合良好，R 值最小为 0.29，最大为 0.80，P<0.05。同时，切断环境传播途径对 SFTS 的防控效果最大，而隔离和缩短病程的效果不大。
结论
我们建立的模型可用于模拟 SFTS 的传播，以帮助指导疾病控制。值得注意的是，模型中切断环境到人类的传播途径对 SFTS 的防控效果最大。
Zotero 插件