Future Changes Forecasting Institute, McAllen, TX, United States of America.
Future Changes Forecasting Institute, Incheon, South Korea.
PLoS One. 2021 May 7;16(5):e0250718. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250718. eCollection 2021.
This article focuses on the relationship between church population and sustainability. We carried out the study on a sample of Presbyterian churches in South Korea, and implemented dynamic optimization of the church population based on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model. In particular, System Dynamics (SD) and Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulations are performed for a prototype model with key parameters that contribute to church growth. Potential parameters reflecting sustainability for churches trigger dramatic growth in church populations. We categorized five dimensions of sustainability with various multi-dimensional indicators in order to measure the level of sustainability, and we obtained the values of the indicators by analyzing a number of news articles searched with a text mining technique. As time-dependent values of sustainability are imposed on the generic SD model for church population dynamics as sustainable potential parameters, the optimized result reproduces specific features for the church population. We discuss the roles of key parameters for sustainable church growth, and the contributions of the churches to sustainability.
本文聚焦于教堂人口与可持续性之间的关系。我们在韩国长老会教堂的样本上进行了研究,并基于易感-感染-恢复(SIR)传染病模型对教堂人口进行了动态优化。特别是,针对有助于教堂发展的关键参数,进行了系统动力学(SD)和基于代理的模型(ABM)模拟。反映教堂可持续性的潜在参数会引发教堂人口的急剧增长。我们对可持续性进行了五个维度的分类,并使用多维指标进行了分类,以衡量可持续性的水平,并且我们通过使用文本挖掘技术搜索了大量新闻文章来分析指标值。通过将可持续潜力参数作为与教堂人口动态相关的通用 SD 模型的时变值施加,优化结果再现了教堂人口的具体特征。我们讨论了可持续教堂增长的关键参数的作用,以及教堂对可持续性的贡献。