LEM-Laboratorio de Ecología Molecular, Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad, Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Research Center Dynamics of High Latitude Marine Ecosystems (Fondap-IDEAL), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile.
Glob Chang Biol. 2021 Aug;27(15):3487-3504. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15674. Epub 2021 May 24.
The potential for biological colonization of Antarctic shores is an increasingly important topic in the context of anthropogenic warming. Successful Antarctic invasions to date have been recorded exclusively from terrestrial habitats. While non-native marine species such as crabs, mussels and tunicates have already been reported from Antarctic coasts, none have as yet established there. Among the potential marine invaders of Antarctic shallow waters is Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775), a crab with a circum-Subantarctic distribution and substantial larval dispersal capacity. An ovigerous female of this species was found in shallow waters of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands in 2010. A combination of physiological experiments and ecological modelling was used to assess the potential niche of H. planatus and estimate its future southward boundaries under climate change scenarios. We show that H. planatus has a minimum thermal limit of 1°C, and that its current distribution (assessed by sampling and niche modelling) is physiologically restricted to the Subantarctic region. While this species is presently unable to survive in Antarctica, future warming under both 'strong mitigation' and 'no mitigation' greenhouse gas emission scenarios will favour its niche expansion to the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) by 2100. Future human activity also has potential to increase the probability of anthropogenic translocation of this species into Antarctic ecosystems.
在人为变暖的背景下，南极海岸生物殖民的潜力是一个日益重要的话题。迄今为止，成功的南极入侵仅记录于陆地生境。尽管已经有非本地的海洋物种，如螃蟹、贻贝和被囊动物，从南极海岸被报道，但没有一个物种在那里建立了种群。南极浅水区的潜在海洋入侵物种之一是 Halicarcinus planatus（Fabricius，1775），一种分布于环南极地区、具有大量幼虫扩散能力的螃蟹。2010 年，在南设得兰群岛的欺骗岛浅水区发现了一只抱卵的雌性该种螃蟹。我们结合生理实验和生态建模来评估 H. planatus 的潜在生态位，并根据气候变化情景估计其未来的向南边界。我们表明，H. planatus 的最低温度限制为 1°C，并且其当前的分布（通过采样和生态位建模评估）在生理上仅限于亚热带地区。虽然该物种目前无法在南极洲生存，但在“强烈减排”和“不减排”温室气体排放情景下，未来的变暖将有利于其生态位在 2100 年前扩展到西南极半岛（WAP）。未来的人类活动也有可能增加这种物种被人为转移到南极生态系统的概率。
