Faculty of Natural and Oceanographic Sciences, University of Concepción, Concepción, Chile.
Millennium Institute Biodiversity of Antarctic and Subantarctic Ecosystems (BASE), Concepción, Chile.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 24;14(1):29095. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-80353-x.
Climate change is projected to substantially alter the Southern Ocean's physical and chemical properties, thereby impacting its marine ecosystems and species, particularly those in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic regions. This study focuses on Neobuccinum eatoni, a polar marine 'true whelk' endemic to these regions, utilizing 166 spatially independent occurrence data records to model potential distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Employing Species Distribution Models (SDMs) on spatially cross-validated occurrences, we achieved high predictive accuracy, identifying "sea water salinity range" at mean bottom depth as the most significant predictor of habitat preferences. Additionally, dissolved iron (minimum), ocean temperature (range), and pH (long-term maximum) emerged as critical factors influencing the species' modeled distribution. By 2050, future projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario predict an eastward expansion, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula, the Scotia Arc and the Weddell Sea, with an expansion in the latter region also predicted under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, in both scenarios, a reduction in habitat suitability is expected in certain sectors around the Antarctic continent and the Kerguelen Archipelago. By 2100, under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), the species is projected to move to deeper areas and lower latitudes, with notable expansions in the Weddell Sea and in the Southern Ocean surrounding the Kerguelen Archipelago. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, expansion is projected in the Weddell Sea and reductions in Antarctic and subantarctic regions. This study highlights the critical influence of changing salinity on N. eatoni's distribution, predicting a significant habitat reduction under high CO emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5). The findings underscore the urgent need for focused research on the vulnerability of endemic marine invertebrates to develop effective conservation strategies in the face of rapid climatic changes.
气候变化预计将极大地改变南大洋的物理和化学特性，从而影响其海洋生态系统和物种，特别是南极和亚南极地区的物种。本研究以 Neobuccinum eatoni 为对象，该物种是一种生活在极地海洋的“真海螺”，是这些地区的特有种。研究利用 166 个空间独立的出现数据记录，根据未来气候情景模型预测潜在的分布变化。通过对空间交叉验证的出现数据使用物种分布模型 (SDMs)，我们获得了很高的预测准确性，确定了平均底部水深的“海水盐度范围”是栖息地偏好的最主要预测因子。此外，溶解铁（最小值）、海洋温度（范围）和 pH（长期最大值）也是影响物种模型分布的关键因素。到 2050 年，根据 SSP2-4.5 情景的预测，该物种将向东扩展，特别是在南极半岛、斯科舍弧和威德尔海，在 SSP5-8.5 情景下，后者的范围也将扩大。然而，在这两种情景下，预计在南极洲周围和凯尔盖朗群岛的某些地区，生境适宜度将会下降。到 2100 年，在中度排放情景（SSP2-4.5）下，该物种预计将迁移到更深的区域和更低的纬度，威德尔海和凯尔盖朗群岛周围的南大洋将显著扩张。然而，在 SSP5-8.5 情景下，威德尔海将扩张，而南极和亚南极地区将减少。本研究强调了盐度变化对 N. eatoni 分布的关键影响，预测在高 CO 排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下，生境将显著减少。这些发现突显了在快速气候变化背景下，对特有海洋无脊椎动物脆弱性进行有针对性研究的迫切需要，以便制定有效的保护策略。
