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一项关于利用有症状病例来追踪新冠疫情发展的潜在益处的研究。

A study on the possible merits of using symptomatic cases to trace the development of the COVID-19 pandemic.

作者信息

Bonifazi Gianluca, Lista Luca, Menasce Dario, Mezzetto Mauro, Pedrini Daniele, Spighi Roberto, Zoccoli Antonio

机构信息

Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy.

INFN Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.

出版信息

Eur Phys J Plus. 2021;136(5):481. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01448-2. Epub 2021 May 3.

DOI:10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01448-2
PMID:33968562
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8090902/
Abstract

In a recent work, we introduced a novel method to compute the effective reproduction number and we applied it to describe the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The study is based on the number of daily positive swabs as reported by the Italian Dipartimento di Protezione Civile. Recently, the Italian Istituto Superiore di Sanità made available the data relative of the symptomatic cases, where the reporting date is the date of beginning of symptoms instead of the date of the reporting of the positive swab. In this paper, we will discuss merits and drawbacks of this data, quantitatively comparing the quality of the pandemic indicators computed with the two samples.

摘要

在最近的一项工作中，我们引入了一种计算有效繁殖数的新方法，并将其应用于描述意大利新冠疫情的发展情况。该研究基于意大利民防部报告的每日阳性拭子数量。最近，意大利高等卫生研究院提供了有症状病例的相关数据，其中报告日期是症状开始日期而非阳性拭子报告日期。在本文中，我们将讨论这些数据的优缺点，定量比较用这两个样本计算出的疫情指标的质量。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/8cee3a4ef05f/13360_2021_1448_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/6cf11d74d410/13360_2021_1448_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/ae039b3659b2/13360_2021_1448_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/83fd47668a9d/13360_2021_1448_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/1eec269899fb/13360_2021_1448_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/269f1d38e23b/13360_2021_1448_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/a9b746334eb1/13360_2021_1448_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/8cee3a4ef05f/13360_2021_1448_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/6cf11d74d410/13360_2021_1448_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/ae039b3659b2/13360_2021_1448_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/83fd47668a9d/13360_2021_1448_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/1eec269899fb/13360_2021_1448_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/269f1d38e23b/13360_2021_1448_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/a9b746334eb1/13360_2021_1448_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9198/8090902/8cee3a4ef05f/13360_2021_1448_Fig7_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data.利用有效再生数与倍增时间的关系对其进行简化估计，并将其应用于意大利新冠肺炎数据。
Eur Phys J Plus. 2021;136(4):386. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6. Epub 2021 Apr 11.
2
An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time.一个基于网络的交互式仪表盘，用于实时追踪新冠病毒。
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 May;20(5):533-534. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1. Epub 2020 Feb 19.
3
A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics.
意大利各地区新冠疫情防控限制措施对繁殖数影响的研究。
Eur Phys J Plus. 2021;136(12):1208. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02076-6. Epub 2021 Dec 3.
一种新的框架和软件，用于估算传染病期间不断变化的繁殖数。
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