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意大利各地区新冠疫情防控限制措施对繁殖数影响的研究。

Study on the effects of the restrictive measures for containment of the COVID-19 pandemic on the reproduction number in Italian regions.

作者信息

Bonifazi Gianluca, Lista Luca, Menasce Dario, Mezzetto Mauro, Pedrini Daniele, Spighi Roberto, Zoccoli Antonio

机构信息

Università Politecnica delle Marche, Modena, Italy.

INFN Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.

出版信息

Eur Phys J Plus. 2021;136(12):1208. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02076-6. Epub 2021 Dec 3.

DOI:10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02076-6
PMID:34877244
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8641544/
Abstract

Since November 6th, 2020, Italian regions have been classified according to four levels, corresponding to specific risk scenarios, for which specific restrictive measures have been foreseen. By analyzing the time evolution of the reproduction number , we estimate how much different restrictive measures affect , and we quantify the combined effect of the diffusion of virus variants and the beginning of the vaccination campaign upon the trend. We also compute the time delay between implementation of restrictive measures and the resulting effects. Three different models to describe the effects of restrictive measures are discussed and the results are cross-checked with two different algorithms for the computation of .

摘要

自2020年11月6日起，意大利各地区根据四个级别进行分类，这四个级别对应特定的风险情景，针对这些情景已预先制定了具体的限制措施。通过分析再生数的时间演变，我们估计不同的限制措施对其产生了多大影响，并量化病毒变体传播和疫苗接种运动开始对再生数趋势的综合影响。我们还计算了限制措施实施与其产生效果之间的时间延迟。讨论了三种描述限制措施效果的不同模型，并使用两种不同的算法计算再生数来对结果进行交叉核对。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/b4ab7b796068/13360_2021_2076_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/066196198b82/13360_2021_2076_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/f73059529dfd/13360_2021_2076_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/ca59107d5f07/13360_2021_2076_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/574ab391e16a/13360_2021_2076_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/b4ab7b796068/13360_2021_2076_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/066196198b82/13360_2021_2076_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/f73059529dfd/13360_2021_2076_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/ca59107d5f07/13360_2021_2076_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/574ab391e16a/13360_2021_2076_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c9c0/8641544/b4ab7b796068/13360_2021_2076_Fig8_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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A simplified estimate of the effective reproduction number using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data.利用有效再生数与倍增时间的关系对其进行简化估计，并将其应用于意大利新冠肺炎数据。
Eur Phys J Plus. 2021;136(4):386. doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-01339-6. Epub 2021 Apr 11.
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利用SUIHTER模型对意大利的新冠疫情和疫苗接种活动进行建模。
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