Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
J Sci Food Agric. 2021 Dec;101(15):6311-6319. doi: 10.1002/jsfa.11300. Epub 2021 May 21.
Crop phenology change is co-determined by climate change and adaptation strategies, such as crop management, but their combined and isolated impacts on rice phenology are still unclear. Quantifying the impacts and identifying the main contributors are critical to food security under climate change. Thus we distinguished and quantified the relative contribution of climate change and crop management to rice (Oryza sativa L.) phenological changes in China from 1981 to 2010, using a first-difference multivariate regression method.
Rice phenology has changed over the past 30 years in China. The mean length of the phenological stage from emergence to transplanting was shortened, whereas the mean length of the stage from transplanting to heading, from heading to maturity, was prolonged. The relative contribution of crop management was greater than that of climate change for single and late rice, which took up over 90% of the total change in certain phenology stages. Among the climatic factors, temperature was the dominant contributor, which accounted for more than 50% of the change in rice phenology. The stage from transplanting to heading of early rice and late rice had strongly negative sensitivities to increasing temperature.
Crop management has offset the adverse effects of climate change on single and early rice phenology in China over the past 30 years to some extent, while further adaptation measures such as adjusting sowing date, shifting rice varieties, applying nitrogen fertilizer and irrigation should be applied to late rice in southern China, especially in a warmer future. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.
作物物候变化是气候变化和作物管理等适应策略共同决定的，但它们对水稻物候的综合和单独影响仍不清楚。量化这些影响并确定主要贡献因素对气候变化下的粮食安全至关重要。因此，我们使用一阶差分多元回归方法，区分并量化了 1981 年至 2010 年中国气候变化和作物管理对水稻（Oryza sativa L.）物候变化的相对贡献。
过去 30 年来，中国的水稻物候发生了变化。从出苗到移栽的物候阶段的平均长度缩短，而从移栽到抽穗、从抽穗到成熟的阶段的平均长度延长。在单季稻和晚稻中，作物管理的相对贡献大于气候变化，在某些物候阶段占总变化的 90%以上。在气候因素中，温度是主要贡献者，占水稻物候变化的 50%以上。早稻和晚稻从移栽到抽穗的阶段对温度升高有强烈的负敏感性。
在过去的 30 年中，作物管理在一定程度上抵消了气候变化对中国单季稻和早稻物候的不利影响，而在未来更温暖的情况下，应在中国南方的晚稻中采取进一步的适应措施，如调整播种期、更换水稻品种、施用氮肥和灌溉。© 2021 英国化学学会。
