Key Laboratory of Ocean Energy Utilization and Energy Conservation of Ministry of Education, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, No.2 Linggong Road, High-Tech Pack, Dalian, 116024, Liaoning, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Sep;28(36):50767-50789. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14040-z. Epub 2021 May 10.
Industrial restructuring is a significant measure for low-carbon transition. In principle, carbon emissions can be effectively reduced by limiting the output of high-emission sectors; however, the socio-economic effects of the sectors should also be considered. Moreover, owing to the limitations of the method or data, the interactions between households and production sectors have been neglected in the study of industrial restructuring, resulting in an incomplete and potentially biased understanding of the role of households. To fill this gap, we applied a semi-closed input-output model to identify key sectors by economic and emission linkages and measure the employment impacts (direct, indirect, and induced) of reduced carbon emissions. The empirical results for China in 2010-2018 showed that relatively small changes in key emission sectors would significantly affect the economic growth, and reduced carbon emissions reduction would generally lead to high job losses. Promoting labor-intensive sectors, particularly the service sector, is conducive to achieving a "multi-win" situation for economic development, carbon emission reductions, and stable employment. Furthermore, our results highlight the significance of households: expanding consumption and increasing household income can bring multiple benefits, such as economic growth, job creation, and low carbon emissions. These findings can provide useful information for identifying the optimized path of restructuring and helping achieve the sustainable development of the environment, economy, and society.
产业结构调整是低碳转型的重要措施。原则上，通过限制高排放部门的产量，可以有效减少碳排放；然而，也应该考虑到这些部门的社会经济影响。此外，由于方法或数据的限制，在产业结构调整研究中忽略了家庭和生产部门之间的相互作用，导致对家庭作用的理解不完整且可能存在偏差。为了填补这一空白，我们应用了一个半封闭的投入产出模型，通过经济和排放联系来识别关键部门，并衡量减少碳排放的就业影响（直接、间接和诱导）。2010-2018 年中国的实证结果表明，关键排放部门的微小变化将显著影响经济增长，而减少碳排放通常会导致大量失业。促进劳动密集型部门，特别是服务业的发展，有利于实现经济发展、碳排放减少和稳定就业的“多赢”局面。此外，我们的结果强调了家庭的重要性：扩大消费和增加家庭收入可以带来经济增长、创造就业机会和低碳排放等多重好处。这些发现可以为确定优化的结构调整路径提供有用信息，有助于实现环境、经济和社会的可持续发展。
