University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN, USA.
J Evol Biol. 2021 Jul;34(7):1095-1109. doi: 10.1111/jeb.13796. Epub 2021 Jul 2.
In a complex community, species continuously adapt to each other. On rare occasions, the adaptation of a species can lead to the extinction of others, and even its own. 'Adaptive dynamics' is the standard mathematical framework to describe evolutionary changes in community interactions, and in particular, predict adaptation driven extinction. Unfortunately, most authors implement the equations of adaptive dynamics through computer simulations that require assuming a large number of questionable parameters and fitness functions. In this study, we present analytical solutions to adaptive dynamics equations, thereby clarifying how outcomes depend on any computational input. We develop general formulas that predict equilibrium abundances over evolutionary time scales. Additionally, we predict which species will go extinct next, and when this will happen.
在一个复杂的群落中，物种不断相互适应。在极少数情况下，一个物种的适应会导致其他物种甚至自身的灭绝。“适应动力学”是描述群落相互作用进化变化的标准数学框架，特别是可以预测由适应驱动的灭绝。不幸的是，大多数作者通过需要假设大量可疑参数和适应度函数的计算机模拟来实现适应动力学方程。在这项研究中，我们提出了适应性动力学方程的解析解，从而阐明了结果如何取决于任何计算输入。我们开发了通用公式来预测进化时间尺度上的平衡丰度。此外，我们还预测了哪些物种将灭绝，以及何时会发生这种情况。
