Department of Logistics and Transportation, Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Department of Economics and Finance, Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Oct;28(37):51137-51148. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14251-4. Epub 2021 May 11.
Considering the prevailing wave of global warming and other environmental challenges, which can be attributed to increasing environmental pollution as a result of economic activity, thus, it is essential to understand the effect of economic progress on the environment. More importantly, this endeavor is especially suited for the European Union (EU) member states, which account for a sizable portion of the world economy. However, by considering the open border or trade policy approach of the bloc, this study applies a battery of econometrics analysis that consists of mean group, augmented mean group, common correlated effect mean group estimators, and Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality analysis for direction of causality. These techniques are superior to first-generation methods to substantiate the relationship between real income, energy intensity, and carbon emission between annual frequency data from 1990 to 2017. Empirical results from series of cointegration tests reveal the long-run equilibrium relationship between the highlighted variables in the EU. Our study validates the existence of EKC phenomenon where emphasis is based on GDP growth at the expense of environmental quality. This implies that EU growth trajectory comes with an environmental trade-off and consequences. However, few countries in the region have made substantial strides of carbon reduction but not as a bloc. This position is resonated by the regression from all estimators in harmony where energy intensity dampens environmental quality in the blocs investigated. On the direction of causality, feedback Granger causality is observed running from GDP growth and carbon emission. A similar direction of causality is seen between energy intensity and carbon emission. These outcomes have far-reaching consequences on the environment. This study recommends the need for energy transition to cleaner and friendlier energy technologies by EU officials. That is, the need for a paradigm shift from conventional energy based on fossil fuel to renewable energy should be pursued in the region. More policy directions are outlined in the concluding section.
考虑到当前全球变暖及其他环境挑战的浪潮，这些问题可以归因于经济活动导致的环境污染日益加剧，因此，了解经济进步对环境的影响至关重要。更重要的是，这项工作特别适合欧盟（EU）成员国，因为它们在世界经济中占有相当大的份额。然而，考虑到该集团的开放边界或贸易政策方法，本研究应用了一系列计量经济学分析，包括均值组、增强均值组、共同相关效应均值组估计量以及 Dumitrescu 和 Hurlin 因果关系分析来确定因果关系的方向。这些技术优于第一代方法，可以在 1990 年至 2017 年的年度频率数据中证明实际收入、能源强度和碳排放之间的关系。一系列协整检验的实证结果表明，在欧盟中突出变量之间存在长期均衡关系。我们的研究验证了 EKC 现象的存在，该现象强调以牺牲环境质量为代价来实现 GDP 增长。这意味着欧盟的增长轨迹存在环境权衡和后果。然而，该地区的少数几个国家在减少碳排放方面取得了实质性进展，但作为一个集团却没有。这一立场与所有估计器的回归结果一致，即在研究的集团中，能源强度会抑制环境质量。在因果关系的方向上，观察到 GDP 增长和碳排放之间存在反馈格兰杰因果关系。在能源强度和碳排放之间也存在类似的因果关系。这些结果对环境产生了深远的影响。本研究建议欧盟官员需要向更清洁、更友好的能源技术进行能源转型。也就是说，该地区需要从基于化石燃料的传统能源向可再生能源进行范式转变。在结论部分概述了更多的政策方向。
