CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China.
Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266071, China.
Sci Rep. 2021 May 12;11(1):10137. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-89507-7.
In the past decade (2010-2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian show significant positive correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the 1987-2016 period, the maximum correlation is achieved at Pingtan station, where correlation coefficient between the AMTSS and Niño-3.4 is 0.55. The AMTSS occurring in El Niño years are stronger than those in non-El Niño years by 9-35 cm in these areas. Further analysis suggests that a developing El Niño can greatly modulate the behaviors of Northwest Pacific typhoons. Strong typhoons tend to make landfall in southeast China with stronger intensities and northward shifted landfall positions. This study indicates that the modulation effect by ENSO may provide potential predictability for the AMTSS, which is useful for the early alert and reduction of storm surge damages.
在过去的十年（2010-2019 年）中，中国大陆海洋灾害造成的直接经济损失中，年度最大风暴潮（AMTSS）占比 46.6%，但其提前预测具有挑战性。通过分析 23 个验潮站的记录，我们发现上海、浙江和福建的 AMTSS 与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）呈显著正相关。在 1987-2016 年期间，平潭站的最大相关系数达到了 0.55，AMTSS 与尼诺-3.4 的相关系数。在厄尔尼诺年发生的 AMTSS 比非厄尔尼诺年强 9-35 厘米。进一步的分析表明，发展中的厄尔尼诺现象可以极大地调节西北太平洋台风的行为。强烈的台风往往会在中国东南部登陆，强度更大，登陆位置更北。本研究表明，ENSO 的调制效应可能为 AMTSS 提供潜在的可预测性，这对于风暴潮灾害的早期预警和减轻具有重要意义。
