Spennemann D H, Marschner I C
Johstone Centre of Parks Recreation and Heritage, Charles Sturt University Albury, NSW Australia.
Disasters. 1995 Sep;19(3):194-7. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.1995.tb00339.x.
An analysis of the historic record of typhoons in the Marshall Islands has identified a significant association between the occurrence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the occurrence of typhoons in the Marshall Islands. Whilst typhoons normally occur further to the east, the warming of the ocean waters around the Marshall Islands, as part of the ENSO phenomenon, generates typhoons further to the west. The results suggest that typhoons are 2.6 times more likely to occur during ENSO years, with a 71 per cent chance of a typhoon striking during an ENSO year, and only a 26 per cent chance of one happening during a non-ENSO year. This has implications for planning and public safety, which the relevant authorities may wish to take note of.
对马绍尔群岛台风历史记录的分析发现，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动现象（ENSO）的出现与马绍尔群岛台风的发生之间存在显著关联。虽然台风通常在更偏东的地方形成，但作为ENSO现象的一部分，马绍尔群岛周围海域水温升高会在更偏西的地方生成台风。结果表明，在ENSO年期间，台风发生的可能性要高出2.6倍，在ENSO年有71%的概率会有台风来袭，而在非ENSO年只有26%的概率会有台风发生。这对规划和公共安全具有影响，相关当局可能需要留意。
