Mori Nobuhito, Kato Masaya, Kim Sooyoul, Mase Hajime, Shibutani Yoko, Takemi Tetsuya, Tsuboki Kazuhisa, Yasuda Tomohiro
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Uji, Kyoto, Japan.
Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University Nagoya, Japan.
Geophys Res Lett. 2014 Jul 28;41(14):5106-5113. doi: 10.1002/2014GL060689. Epub 2014 Jul 25.
Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5-6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast.
2013年11月袭击菲律宾的台风“海燕”是一场极其强烈的热带气旋,造成了灾难性影响。台风“海燕”的最低中心气压为895百帕,是登陆北太平洋西部主要岛屿的最强台风。利用数值天气预报模型和风暴潮模型通过数值试验对台风“海燕”及其相关风暴潮的特征进行了估计。基于最佳后报结果分析,风暴潮水位为5至6米,并且发现莱特湾内由于假潮导致的水面高度局部放大非常显著。数值试验表明,由于莱特湾特殊的地形以及菲律宾海沟,风暴潮剖面具有连贯结构,这是塔克洛班灾难的主要促成因素。数值结果还表明了风暴潮预报的敏感性。