Anal Methods. 2012 Aug 23;4(9):2609-2612. doi: 10.1039/c2ay90034c.
There is now abundant evidence that we analytical chemists are tending to underestimate the uncertainty of our measurements. There are two main underlying reasons for this. One reason is technical: it is easy to overlook important contributions to uncertainty, so the models used to estimate uncertainty may be incomplete. The second reason may be psychological: there may be an unconscious selection bias in the information we use to assess uncertainty. What should we do about this missing, 'dark', uncertainty?
现在有充分的证据表明,我们分析化学家往往低估了测量的不确定性。造成这种情况有两个主要潜在原因。一个原因是技术方面的:很容易忽略对不确定性的重要贡献,所以用于估计不确定性的模型可能不完整。第二个原因可能是心理方面的:在我们用于评估不确定性的信息中可能存在无意识的选择偏差。对于这种缺失的、“隐藏的”不确定性,我们该怎么办?