Tsai Michelle, Lari Harris, Saffy Samantha, Klonsky E David
Surrey Mental Health and Substance Use Services, and Fraser Health Authority.
Surrey Memorial Hospital and Fraser Health Authority.
Behav Ther. 2021 May;52(3):673-685. doi: 10.1016/j.beth.2020.08.007. Epub 2020 Sep 8.
This study examined the validity and predictive utility of the three-step theory (3ST) of suicide in psychiatric patients. Participants were 190 consecutively admitted adult psychiatric inpatients (53% female, 60% White, ages 18-73) assessed at three time points: baseline, 4 weeks later (n = 112), and 3 months postdischarge (n = 102). Results were broadly supportive of the 3ST. First, at baseline, an interactive model of pain and hopelessness accounted for substantial variability in suicidal desire, even when controlling for depression and lifetime ideation. This result replicated in different genders and age ranges (i.e., 18-32 and 33-73). Further, pain and hopelessness were robust predictors of suicidal desire weeks and months into the future. Second, among those with pain and hopelessness, lower connectedness, as well as the extent to which pain exceeds connectedness, were robust predictors of higher suicidal desire. Last, a baseline measure of practical capability for suicide predicted suicide attempts both retrospectively and prospectively, even when controlling for lifetime ideation-however, dispositional and acquired contributors to capability were less predictive. Results support the validity and predictive utility of the 3ST, and suggest that the theory may have utility for guiding risk assessment and intervention.
本研究考察了自杀三步理论(3ST)在精神科患者中的有效性和预测效用。研究参与者为190名连续入院的成年精神科住院患者(53%为女性,60%为白人,年龄在18 - 73岁之间),在三个时间点进行评估:基线期、4周后(n = 112)以及出院后3个月(n = 102)。结果广泛支持了3ST。首先,在基线期,即使在控制了抑郁和终生自杀意念的情况下,疼痛与绝望的交互模型仍能解释自杀欲望的显著变异性。这一结果在不同性别和年龄范围(即18 - 32岁和33 - 73岁)中得到了重复验证。此外,疼痛和绝望是未来数周和数月自杀欲望的有力预测指标。其次,在有疼痛和绝望的人群中,较低的人际联结感,以及疼痛超过联结感的程度,是更高自杀欲望的有力预测指标。最后,一项自杀实际能力的基线测量指标,即使在控制了终生自杀意念的情况下,仍能对自杀未遂进行回顾性和前瞻性预测——然而,能力的特质性和后天性影响因素的预测性则较弱。研究结果支持了3ST的有效性和预测效用,并表明该理论可能有助于指导风险评估和干预。