Key Laboratory of Ocean Energy Utilization and Energy Conservation of Ministry of Education, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China.
School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Sep 15;787:147625. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147625. Epub 2021 May 8.
Both economic globalization and population aging have given rise to changes in environmental quality, but the research that integrates these two crucial factors into the same environment policy framework is still a blank. Therefore, using panel data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over the period 1971-2016, this study examines the long-term impact of economic globalization and population aging on CO emissions. First, second-generation panel regression approaches are employed to verify the panel data, including unit root tests, cointegration tests and causality tests. Next, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) are respectively used for empirical analysis of the long-term impact between variables. The augmented mean group (AMG) is also applied to ascertain the robustness results of the estimation coefficients. Finally, using Dumitrescu and Hurlin non-causality test to examine the causal associations between variables to avoid the contingency of the results. The overall results show that economic globalization and population aging decrease the long-term CO emissions. The inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution confirms the effectiveness of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in OECD countries. In addition, unidirectional causal relationships have been found from economic globalization and population aging to CO emissions in this study. Policy suggestions in response to these findings are discussed.
经济全球化和人口老龄化都导致了环境质量的变化，但将这两个关键因素整合到同一环境政策框架中的研究仍然是空白。因此，本研究利用经济合作与发展组织（OECD）1971-2016 年的面板数据，考察了经济全球化和人口老龄化对 CO 排放的长期影响。首先，采用第二代面板回归方法验证面板数据，包括单位根检验、协整检验和因果检验。其次，分别使用全修正最小二乘法（FMOLS）和动态最小二乘法（DOLS）对变量之间的长期影响进行实证分析。此外，还采用扩展均值组（AMG）来确定估计系数的稳健性结果。最后，使用 Dumitrescu 和 Hurlin 非因果检验来检验变量之间的因果关系，以避免结果的偶然性。总体结果表明，经济全球化和人口老龄化降低了 CO 的长期排放量。经济增长与环境污染之间的倒 U 型关系证实了经济合作与发展组织国家环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）的有效性。此外，本研究还发现经济全球化和人口老龄化与 CO 排放之间存在单向因果关系。针对这些发现提出了政策建议。
