Ross John, Bietsch Kristin
Independent Demographic Researcher, New Paltz, New York, USA.
Avenir Health, Glastonbury, Connecticut, 06033, USA.
Gates Open Res. 2020 Oct 7;4:153. doi: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13177.1. eCollection 2020.
: The open birth interval -- the time since the woman's latest birth -- is closely correlated to the usual fertility measures, but it adds important information from the age of the woman's youngest child, with its implications for her freedom from domestic roles. Studies of the open interval by age and parity can elucidate the transitions in reproductive behavior that women experience over time. : 249 surveys of married women in 75 countries in the DHS series provide information on the open interval by age and parity, and by the fertility measures of the total fertility rate (TFR), the general fertility rate (GFR), and children ever born (CEB), with time trends. Stata 15 and the "R" software were used, and a two-parameter equation was employed to model the distribution. : The distribution of women by the open interval follows a downward curve from birth to 20 years; it varies across countries and over time only by its starting level and the steepness of the curve. Declines in the shortest intervals soon after birth reflect recent fertility declines. Variations are large by both age and parity, but in quite different patterns. Past modeling analyses demonstrate the effects of female and spouse mortality, declining fecundability, contraceptive use, and reduced sexual exposure. Both period and cohort effects can impact the curve. The open interval distribution is modelled in an equation with two parameters and calculated for the latest surveys in the 75 countries. The time since a woman's birth is easily captured with a single question in successive surveys. Changes in the open interval distribution serve as sensitive indicators of recent fertility changes, and the dynamics of reproductive behavior across women's life stages are captured in new ways, as gauged by age and parity trends in the distributions.
开放生育间隔——即自该妇女最近一次生育以来的时间——与通常的生育指标密切相关,但它增加了来自其最年幼子女年龄的重要信息,及其对她摆脱家庭角色的影响。按年龄和胎次对开放生育间隔进行研究,可以阐明妇女随着时间推移所经历的生殖行为转变。在人口与健康调查(DHS)系列中,对75个国家的249名已婚妇女进行的调查提供了按年龄和胎次划分的开放生育间隔信息,以及总生育率(TFR)、一般生育率(GFR)和曾生育子女数(CEB)等生育指标随时间变化的趋势。使用了Stata 15和“R”软件,并采用双参数方程对分布进行建模。按开放生育间隔划分的妇女分布从出生到20岁呈下降曲线;不同国家之间以及随时间的变化仅体现在其起始水平和曲线的陡峭程度上。出生后不久最短生育间隔的下降反映了近期生育率的下降。按年龄和胎次的变化幅度都很大,但模式截然不同。以往的建模分析表明了女性和配偶死亡率、生育能力下降、避孕措施使用以及性接触减少的影响。时期效应和队列效应都会影响该曲线。开放生育间隔分布在一个双参数方程中进行建模,并针对75个国家的最新调查进行计算。在连续调查中,通过一个简单问题就能轻松获取妇女自出生以来的时间。开放生育间隔分布的变化是近期生育率变化的敏感指标,并且通过分布中的年龄和胎次趋势来衡量,以新的方式捕捉了妇女生命各阶段生殖行为的动态变化。