Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Jun;27(6):1598-1606. doi: 10.3201/eid2706.210568.
Relatively few coronavirus disease cases and deaths have been reported from sub-Saharan Africa, although the extent of its spread remains unclear. During August 10-September 11, 2020, we recruited 2,214 participants for a representative household-based cross-sectional serosurvey in Juba, South Sudan. We found 22.3% of participants had severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) receptor binding domain IgG titers above prepandemic levels. After accounting for waning antibody levels, age, and sex, we estimated that 38.3% (95% credible interval 31.8%-46.5%) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. At this rate, for each PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection reported by the Ministry of Health, 103 (95% credible interval 86-126) infections would have been unreported, meaning SARS-CoV-2 has likely spread extensively within Juba. We also found differences in background reactivity in Juba compared with Boston, Massachusetts, USA, where the immunoassay was validated. Our findings underscore the need to validate serologic tests in sub-Saharan Africa populations.
虽然撒哈拉以南非洲地区报告的冠状病毒疾病病例和死亡人数相对较少,但该地区的传播范围仍不清楚。在 2020 年 8 月 10 日至 9 月 11 日期间,我们在南苏丹朱巴招募了 2214 名参与者,进行了一项具有代表性的基于家庭的横断面血清学调查。我们发现,22.3%的参与者的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)受体结合域 IgG 滴度高于大流行前水平。在考虑到抗体水平下降、年龄和性别因素后,我们估计 38.3%(95%可信区间为 31.8%-46.5%)的人群感染了 SARS-CoV-2。按照这个速度,对于卫生部报告的每例经聚合酶链反应(PCR)确认的 SARS-CoV-2 感染病例,将有 103 例(95%可信区间为 86-126 例)未报告的感染病例,这意味着 SARS-CoV-2 在朱巴可能已经广泛传播。我们还发现,朱巴与美国马萨诸塞州波士顿的背景反应存在差异,该免疫测定法在波士顿得到了验证。我们的研究结果强调了在撒哈拉以南非洲人群中验证血清学检测的必要性。