Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
NIHR Health Research Protection Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Liverpool, UK.
Sci Adv. 2023 Jun 9;9(23):eadg7676. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adg7676.
Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.
并非所有的 COVID-19 死亡病例都有官方报告，特别是在低收入和人道主义环境中，报告缺口的严重程度仍鲜有描述。替代数据来源，包括墓地工作人员报告、墓地卫星图像和社交媒体对感染情况的调查，可能提供了解决方案。通过将这些数据与在数学建模框架内独立进行的具有代表性的血清学研究相结合，我们旨在利用 2020 年埃塞俄比亚的亚的斯亚贝巴、也门的亚丁和苏丹的喀土穆这三个主要城市的例子，更好地了解报告不足的范围。我们估计，在每个地区，COVID-19 死亡病例的报告比例分别为 69%至 100%、0.8%至 8.0%和 3.0%至 6.0%。在未来的流行病中，以及在人口登记系统有限的情况下，使用多种替代数据来源可以提供急需的、改进的流行病影响估计。然而，最终，这些系统是必要的，以确保与 COVID-19 形成对比的是，未来的大流行病或其他死亡驱动因素的影响在全球范围内得到报告和理解。
