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低碳能源战略与发达和发展中经济体的经济增长:以能效和能源多样性为例。

Low-carbon energy strategies and economic growth in developed and developing economies: the case of energy efficiency and energy diversity.

机构信息

Department of Management Studies, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines) Dhanbad, Dhanbad, 826004, India.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Oct;28(39):54608-54620. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14070-7. Epub 2021 May 20.

Abstract

There has been growing interest in studying the relationship between energy strategies (energy efficiency and energy diversity) and economic growth to achieve the low-carbon economy goals in recent years. However, the available empirical evidence is scarce and provides contradictory results, limiting the policy implications of the existing findings. Therefore, this study aims to comprehensively examine the possible nexus between low-carbon energy strategies and economic growth for developed and developing economies. The empirical approach involves exploring the Granger causal relationships using a panel Granger (non) causality test and estimating the long-run effects by employing a panel autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework. The dataset covers panels of developed (28 countries) and developing (34 countries) economies over the period 1990-2017. Estimated results from the causality test reveal that in the economic growth-energy efficiency nexus, a unidirectional Granger causality exists for developed economies (running from economic growth to energy efficiency). In contrast, a bidirectional Granger causality is evident for developing economies. In the economic growth-energy diversity nexus, only unidirectional Granger causality exists for developed (running from economic growth to energy diversity) and developing (from energy diversity to economic growth) economies. The long-run coefficient estimates show that energy efficiency promotes economic growth for both developed and developing economies, but energy diversity promotes economic growth only for developing economies. Economic growth discourages energy efficiency for developed economies but encourages energy efficiency for developing economies. However, economic growth promotes energy diversity for both developed and developing economies. The findings of this study suggest that there is an immediate need to mitigate the adverse effect of economic growth on energy efficiency by focusing more on energy-savings behavior and practices for developed economies. Moreover, energy efficiency and energy diversity can be considered an alternate strategy to achieve higher economic growth with low carbon emissions for developing economies.

摘要

近年来,人们越来越关注研究能源战略(能源效率和能源多样性)与经济增长之间的关系,以实现低碳经济目标。然而,现有实证证据有限,且结果相互矛盾,限制了现有研究结果的政策意义。因此,本研究旨在全面考察低碳能源战略与发达和发展中经济体经济增长之间的可能联系。实证方法涉及使用面板格兰杰(非)因果检验探索低碳能源战略与经济增长之间的因果关系,并通过面板自回归分布滞后模型框架估计长期效应。该数据集涵盖了 1990-2017 年期间发达(28 个国家)和发展中(34 个国家)经济体的面板数据。因果检验的估计结果表明,在经济增长与能源效率的关系中,对于发达经济体而言,存在从经济增长到能源效率的单向格兰杰因果关系。相比之下,对于发展中经济体,存在双向格兰杰因果关系。在经济增长与能源多样性的关系中,对于发达(从经济增长到能源多样性)和发展中(从能源多样性到经济增长)经济体,仅存在单向格兰杰因果关系。长期系数估计表明,能源效率促进了发达和发展中经济体的经济增长,但能源多样性仅促进了发展中经济体的经济增长。经济增长对发达经济体的能源效率产生了抑制作用,但对发展中经济体的能源效率产生了促进作用。然而,经济增长促进了发达和发展中经济体的能源多样性。本研究的结果表明,发达经济体需要立即采取措施,通过更加注重节能行为和实践,减轻经济增长对能源效率的不利影响。此外,对于发展中经济体而言,能源效率和能源多样性可以被视为实现低碳排放下更高经济增长的替代战略。

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