School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University, Changsha, Hunan Province, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Aug;29(37):55830-55844. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-19658-1. Epub 2022 Mar 23.
This paper asymmetrically analyzes the impact of energy consumption and oil price fluctuations on the economic growth of the MENA net oil-exporting and importing nations from 1990 to 2019 using panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (PNARDL) model developed by (Salisu and Isah, Econ Model 66:258-271, 2017). The findings revealed that for the net-oil exporting countries, the impact of nonrenewable energy on economic growth is nonlinear in both terms, where in the both terms, high consumption of nonrenewable energy is influencing economic growth and its low consumption is limiting it. Furthermore, the impact of renewable energy is linear and it is influencing and limiting economic growth in both terms respectively. Moreover, the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth is linear in the long run and nonlinear in the short run, where in the long run, increase in it is not influencing economic growth but in the short run, while its decrease has no effect. For the net-oil importing countries, the impact of nonrenewable energy on economic growth is nonlinear in both terms, where in the long run, high consumption of nonrenewable energy is influencing economic growth but in the short run, it is discouraging it; however, in both terms, low consumption of nonrenewable energy has no effect. In addition, in the long run, the impact of renewable energy is nonlinear but linear in the short run; however, none of its impacts is significant in both terms. Also, the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic growth is linear in both terms and in the both terms, it is influencing economic growth. Nonetheless, for all the variables, the impacts are higher in the net-oil exporting countries. Policy recommendations were provided.
本文利用萨利苏和伊萨（Salisu and Isah）提出的面板非线性自回归分布滞后（PNARDL）模型，从 1990 年到 2019 年，非对称分析了能源消耗和石油价格波动对中东和北非净石油出口国和进口国经济增长的影响。研究结果表明，对于石油净出口国，不可再生能源对经济增长的影响在两个方面都是非线性的，在这两个方面，不可再生能源的高消耗对经济增长有促进作用，而低消耗则对其有抑制作用。此外，可再生能源的影响是线性的，分别在两个方面对经济增长有促进和抑制作用。此外，石油价格波动对经济增长的影响在长期内是线性的，在短期内是非线性的，在长期内，石油价格的上涨不会影响经济增长，但在短期内，石油价格的下跌则没有影响。对于石油净进口国，不可再生能源对经济增长的影响在两个方面都是非线性的，在长期内，不可再生能源的高消耗对经济增长有促进作用，但在短期内，它对经济增长有抑制作用；然而，在两个方面，不可再生能源的低消耗对经济增长没有影响。此外，在长期内，可再生能源的影响是非线性的，但在短期内是线性的；然而，在两个方面，其影响都不显著。此外，石油价格波动对经济增长的影响在两个方面都是线性的，在两个方面都对经济增长有影响。然而，对于所有变量，在石油净出口国的影响更高。本文提出了一些政策建议。
