Boley Aaron C, Byers Michael
Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Department of Political Science, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Sci Rep. 2021 May 20;11(1):10642. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-89909-7.
The rapid development of mega-constellations risks multiple tragedies of the commons, including tragedies to ground-based astronomy, Earth orbit, and Earth's upper atmosphere. Moreover, the connections between the Earth and space environments are inadequately taken into account by the adoption of a consumer electronic model applied to space assets. For example, we point out that satellite re-entries from the Starlink mega-constellation alone could deposit more aluminum into Earth's upper atmosphere than what is done through meteoroids; they could thus become the dominant source of high-altitude alumina. Using simple models, we also show that untracked debris will lead to potentially dangerous on-orbit collisions on a regular basis due to the large number of satellites within mega-constellation orbital shells. The total cross-section of satellites in these constellations also greatly increases the risk of impacts due to meteoroids. De facto orbit occupation by single actors, inadequate regulatory frameworks, and the possibility of free-riding exacerbate these risks. International cooperation is urgently needed, along with a regulatory system that takes into account the effects of tens of thousands of satellites.
巨型星座的迅速发展有可能引发多种公地悲剧，包括对地面天文学、地球轨道和地球高层大气造成的悲剧。此外，将适用于消费电子产品的模式应用于太空资产时，并未充分考虑地球与空间环境之间的联系。例如，我们指出，仅星链巨型星座的卫星再入大气层就可能向地球高层大气中沉积比流星体更多的铝；因此，它们可能成为高空氧化铝的主要来源。通过简单模型，我们还表明，由于巨型星座轨道壳层内卫星数量众多，未跟踪的碎片将经常导致潜在危险的在轨碰撞。这些星座中卫星的总横截面积也大大增加了流星体撞击的风险。单一行为体事实上的轨道占用、监管框架不完善以及搭便车的可能性加剧了这些风险。迫切需要开展国际合作，并建立一个考虑到数以万计卫星影响的监管系统。
