Mao C, Chen G F, Pan Y J, Peng T L, Lyu J C
School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 511436, China.
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Qingyuan 511518, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2021 May 6;55(5):640-645. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200828-01164.
To analyze the trend of mortality and incidence of colorectal cancer among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and to predict the mortality of colorectal cancer from 2016 to 2025. The mortality data of colorectal cancer among urban residents in Guangzhou were collected from the death registration of malignant tumors of Guangzhou Health Statistics Bureau (1972-1979), Guangzhou Health Statistics (1980-2001), Guangzhou Cancer Registration Annual Report (2002-2009) and China Cancer Registration Annual Report (2010-2015). The incidence of colorectal cancer was collected from Guangzhou Cancer Registration Annual Report (2002-2009) and China Cancer Registration Annual Report (2010-2015). The incidence and mortality data of colorectal cancer coded as C18-C21 in 10th Edition of International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) were obtained from the above data, and the demographic data were from the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual change percentage (APC) and average annual change percentage (AAPC) of colorectal cancer mortality and incidence among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and from 2002 to 2015. ARIMA model was used to predict colorectal cancer mortality from 2016 to 2025. There were 19 309 colorectal cancer deaths among urban residents in Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015. The crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer increased from 4.33/100 000 to 24.89/100 000 (AAPC=4.2%, <0.001). A total of 24 033 new cases of colorectal cancer were reported in Guangzhou from 2002 to 2015. The crude incidence rate of colorectal cancer increased from 22.95/100 000 to 52.81/100 000 (AAPC=6.6%, <0.001). The mortality rate of colorectal cancer among urban residents of Guangzhou would continuously increase from 2016 to 2025 and reach 29.53/100 000 in 2025. The mortality rate of colorectal cancer among urban residents of Guangzhou from 1972 to 2015 and the incidence rate of colorectal cancer from 2002 to 2015 both show an upward trend. The mortality rate will increase from 2016 to 2025.
分析1972年至2015年广州市城镇居民结直肠癌的死亡率和发病率趋势，并预测2016年至2025年结直肠癌的死亡率。收集广州市卫生局恶性肿瘤死亡登记（1972 - 1979年）、《广州卫生统计》（1980 - 2001年）、《广州癌症登记年报》（2002 - 2009年）以及《中国癌症登记年报》（2010 - 2015年）中广州市城镇居民结直肠癌的死亡率数据。结直肠癌发病率数据来自《广州癌症登记年报》（2002 - 2009年）和《中国癌症登记年报》（2010 - 2015年）。从上述数据中获取国际疾病分类第10版（ICD - 10）中编码为C18 - C21的结直肠癌发病率和死亡率数据，人口统计学数据来自广州市统计局。采用Joinpoint模型计算1972年至2015年以及2002年至2015年广州市城镇居民结直肠癌死亡率和发病率的年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）。采用ARIMA模型预测2016年至2025年结直肠癌死亡率。1972年至2015年广州市城镇居民结直肠癌死亡病例有19309例。结直肠癌粗死亡率从4.33/10万上升至24.89/10万（AAPC = 4.2%，P < 0.001）。2002年至2015年广州市共报告结直肠癌新发病例24033例。结直肠癌粗发病率从22.95/10万上升至52.81/10万（AAPC = 6.6%，P < 0.001）。2016年至2025年广州市城镇居民结直肠癌死亡率将持续上升，2025年将达到29.53/10万。1972年至2015年广州市城镇居民结直肠癌死亡率以及2002年至2015年结直肠癌发病率均呈上升趋势。2016年至2025年死亡率将上升。
