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[2004年至2018年中国0至1岁儿童先天性心脏病死亡率的变化及趋势分析]

[The analysis on the change and trend of the congenital heart disease mortality rate in children aged 0-1 in China from 2004 to 2018].

作者信息

Shang W J, Ye J L, Pan X P

机构信息

Department of Information Management, National Center for Women and Children's Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100081, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Nov 6;54(11):1249-1254. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200218-00137.

Abstract

To analyze the trend of the congenital heart disease mortality rate in children aged under 1 year old from 2004 to 2018. The mortality rate and constituent ratio of congenital heart disease in different genders, urban and rural areas and regions were calculated by using the publicly available Dataset of National Mortality Surveillance in China from 2004 to 2018. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trend of mortality rate and constituent ratio, and calculate the annual percentage change (APC) in each time period, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in all time period and their 95% values. From 2004 to 2018, a total of 15 969 children aged 0 to 1 years died of congenital heart disease, of which 58.12% (9 281) were boys and 71.79% (11 464) were in rural areas. The deaths of congenital heart disease in eastern, central and western regions accounted for 34.30%, 37.06% and 28.64% of total deaths, respectively. From 2004 to 2018, the mortality rate of congenital heart disease in children decreased from 106.81 per 100 000 to 38.70 per 100 000, with an AAPC (95%) about -7.2% (-11.5%, -2.6%). The mortality rate of congenital heart disease showed a downward trend in girls [AAPC (95%) =-7.7% (-13.0%, -2.0%)], boys [AAPC (95%)=-6.8% (-12.0%, -1.2%)], urban areas [AAPC (95%) =-5.9% (-9.9%, -1.7%)], rural areas [AAPC (95%) =-7.4% (-10.5%, -4.2%)], eastern region [AAPC (95%)=-8.6% (-14.2%, -2.6%)], and central region [AAPC (95%)=-7.8% (-11.5%, -4.0%)]. The gaps of mortality rate gradually shrank in different genders, urban and rural areas and regions. From 2004 to 2018, the constituent ratio of congenital heart disease in children showed an upward trend [AAPC (95%) = 3.3% (1.7%, 4.9%)]. From 2004 to 2018, the mortality rate of congenital heart disease in children aged 0 to 1 years showed a downward trend, and the constituent ratio showed an upward trend.

摘要

分析2004年至2018年1岁以下儿童先天性心脏病死亡率的变化趋势。利用公开的2004年至2018年中国国家死亡监测数据集,计算不同性别、城乡地区及区域先天性心脏病的死亡率和构成比。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析死亡率和构成比的变化趋势,计算各时间段的年度百分比变化(APC)、全时间段的平均年度百分比变化(AAPC)及其95%可信区间。2004年至2018年,共有15969名0至1岁儿童死于先天性心脏病,其中男孩占58.12%(9281名),农村地区占71.79%(11464名)。东部、中部和西部地区先天性心脏病死亡分别占总死亡数的34.30%、37.06%和28.64%。2004年至2018年,儿童先天性心脏病死亡率从每10万例106.81例降至每10万例38.70例,AAPC(95%)约为-7.2%(-11.5%,-2.6%)。先天性心脏病死亡率在女孩[AAPC(95%)=-7.7%(-13.0%,-2.0%)]、男孩[AAPC(95%)=-6.8%(-12.0%,-1.2%)]、城市地区[AAPC(95%)=-5.9%(-9.9%,-1.7%)]、农村地区[AAPC(95%)=-7.4%(-10.5%,-4.2%)]、东部地区[AAPC(95%)=-8.6%(-14.2%,-2.6%)]和中部地区[AAPC(95%)=-7.8%(-11.5%,-4.0%)]均呈下降趋势。不同性别、城乡地区及区域的死亡率差距逐渐缩小。2004年至2018年,儿童先天性心脏病构成比呈上升趋势[AAPC(95%)=3.3%(1.7%,4.9%)]。2004年至2018年,0至1岁儿童先天性心脏病死亡率呈下降趋势,构成比呈上升趋势。

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