Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China.
Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation, Ministry of Education, and College of Life Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong, Sichuan, China.
Glob Chang Biol. 2021 Sep;27(18):4352-4366. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15727. Epub 2021 Jun 28.
Subalpine vegetation across the Tibetan Plateau is globally one of the most sensitive to climate change. However, the potential landscape-scale effects of climate change on subalpine forest dynamics remain largely unexplored. Here, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II) to simulate forest dynamics under future climate change in Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in the eastern subalpine region of the Tibetan Plateau. We examined changes in the composition, distribution and aboveground biomass of cold temperate coniferous forests, temperate coniferous forests, deciduous broad-leaved forests and redwood forest under four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the current climate) from 2016 to 2096. Our model predicts that by 2096, (i) cold temperate coniferous forests will expand and increase by 7.92%, 8.18%, 8.65% and 7.02% under current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; (ii) distribution of forests as a whole shows upward elevational range shift, especially under RCP8.5 scenario and (iii) total aboveground biomass slowly increases at first and then decreases to 12%-16% of current distribution under RCPs. These results show that climate change can be expected to significantly influence forest composition, distribution and aboveground biomass in the subalpine forests of eastern Tibetan Plateau. This study is the first to simulate forest dynamics at the landscape scale in subalpine areas of the Tibetan Plateau, which provides an important step in developing more effective strategies of forest management for expected climate change, not only in China but also around the world.
青藏高原的亚高山植被是对气候变化最敏感的地区之一。然而，气候变化对亚高山森林动态的潜在景观尺度影响在很大程度上仍未得到探索。在这里，我们使用一个森林景观模型（LANDIS-II）和一个森林生态系统过程模型（PnET-II），来模拟青藏高原东部亚高山地区九寨沟国家自然保护区未来气候变化下的森林动态。我们研究了在四种气候变化情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5 和当前气候）下，从 2016 年到 2096 年，冷温带针叶林、温带针叶林、落叶阔叶林和红杉林的组成、分布和地上生物量的变化。我们的模型预测，到 2096 年，（i）在当前气候、RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下，冷温带针叶林将分别扩张并增加 7.92%、8.18%、8.65%和 7.02%；（ii）森林的整体分布表现出向上的海拔范围转移，特别是在 RCP8.5 情景下；（iii）总地上生物量最初缓慢增加，然后在 RCP 下减少到当前分布的 12%-16%。这些结果表明，气候变化可能会显著影响青藏高原东部亚高山森林的组成、分布和地上生物量。本研究首次模拟了青藏高原亚高山地区的森林动态景观尺度，为应对预期气候变化制定更有效的森林管理策略提供了重要步骤，不仅在中国，而且在全球范围内。
