在估计香港2019冠状病毒病随时间变化的繁殖数时考虑输入病例
Accounting for Imported Cases in Estimating the Time-Varying Reproductive Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hong Kong.
作者信息
Tsang Tim K, Wu Peng, Lau Eric H Y, Cowling Benjamin J
机构信息
World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
出版信息
J Infect Dis. 2021 Sep 1;224(5):783-787. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiab299.
Estimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an infectious disease. The impact of imported cases on the estimation is rarely explored. We developed a model to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, accounting for imperfect contact tracing of cases. We applied this framework to data on coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks in Hong Kong. The estimated Rt for local cases rose above 1 in late March 2020, which was undetected by other commonly used methods. When imported cases account for a considerable proportion of all cases, their impact on estimating Rt is critical.
估计随时间变化的繁殖数Rt对于监测传染病的传播性至关重要。输入病例对估计的影响很少被探讨。我们开发了一个模型，分别估计本地病例和输入病例的Rt，同时考虑到病例接触者追踪的不完善。我们将这个框架应用于2019年冠状病毒病在香港爆发的数据。估计本地病例的Rt在2020年3月下旬升至1以上，这是其他常用方法未检测到的。当输入病例在所有病例中占相当比例时，它们对估计Rt的影响至关重要。
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