Department of Human Movement Sciences, Faculty of Behaviour and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Van der Boechorststraat 7-9, 1081 BT, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Leibniz Research Centre for Working Environment and Human Factors (IfADo), Dortmund, Germany.
Int Arch Occup Environ Health. 2022 Jan;95(1):249-258. doi: 10.1007/s00420-021-01721-y. Epub 2021 Jun 5.
Over the last few decades, a global increase in both cold and heat extremes has been observed with significant impacts on human mortality. Although it is well-identified that older individuals (> 65 years) are most prone to temperature-related mortality, there is no consensus on the effect of sex. The current study investigated if sex differences in temperature-related mortality exist in the Netherlands.
Twenty-three-year ambient temperature data of the Netherlands were combined with daily mortality data which were subdivided into sex and three age classes (< 65 years, 65-80 years, ≥ 80 years). Distributed lag non-linear models were used to analyze the effect of ambient temperature on mortality and determine sex differences in mortality attributable to the cold and heat, which is defined as mean daily temperatures below and above the Minimum Mortality Temperature, respectively.
Attributable fractions in the heat were higher in females, especially in the oldest group under extreme heat (≥ 97.5th percentile), whilst no sex differences were found in the cold. Cold- and heat-related mortality was most prominent in the oldest age group (≥ 80 years) and to a smaller extent in the age group between 65-80 years. In the age group < 65 years temperature-related mortality was only significant for males in the heat.
Mortality in the Netherlands represents the typical V- or hockey-stick shaped curve with a higher daily mortality in the cold and heat than at milder temperatures in both males and females, especially in the age group ≥ 80 years. Heat-related mortality was higher in females than in males, especially in the oldest age group (≥ 80 years) under extreme heat, whilst in the cold no sex differences were found. The underlying cause may be of physiological or behavioral nature, but more research is necessary.
在过去几十年中，全球范围内冷、热浪极端事件均有所增加，对人类死亡率产生了重大影响。尽管人们已经充分认识到，老年人（>65 岁）最容易受到与温度相关的死亡影响，但关于性别因素的影响仍存在争议。本研究旨在探讨荷兰是否存在与温度相关的性别间死亡率差异。
将荷兰 23 年的环境温度数据与每日死亡率数据相结合，死亡率数据按照性别和三个年龄组（<65 岁、65-80 岁、≥80 岁）进行细分。采用分布式滞后非线性模型分析环境温度对死亡率的影响，并确定与寒冷和炎热相关的死亡率的性别差异，分别定义为低于和高于最低死亡率温度的平均日温度。
在高温下，女性的归因分数更高，尤其是在极端高温（≥97.5 百分位数）下的最年长组，而在寒冷中则没有发现性别差异。冷相关和热相关的死亡率在最年长组（≥80 岁）最为显著，在 65-80 岁年龄组次之。在<65 岁年龄组，热相关死亡率仅在男性中显著。
荷兰的死亡率呈现典型的 V 形或冰球棒形曲线，无论男性还是女性，在寒冷和炎热天气中的每日死亡率均高于温和天气，尤其是在≥80 岁的年龄组。与男性相比，女性的热相关死亡率更高，尤其是在极端高温下的最年长组（≥80 岁），而在寒冷中则没有发现性别差异。其潜在原因可能是生理或行为性质的，但需要进一步研究。
