Guin Pradeep, Bhan Nandita, Sethi Keshav
Jindal School of Government and Public Policy (JSGP), O. P. Jindal Global University (JGU), Sonipat, India.
Jindal School of Public Health and Human Development (JSPH), O. P. Jindal Global University (JGU), Sonipat, India.
Temperature (Austin). 2025 May 1;12(2):179-199. doi: 10.1080/23328940.2025.2475420. eCollection 2025.
The effects of exposure to extreme heat and cold temperatures on human health have mostly been studied in high-income countries. We examined this association by exploring the effect of extreme temperatures on mortality due to heatstroke and exposure to cold in India and by states. We used temperature data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and mortality data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) to examine trends in overall, gender, and age-specific mortality. We used structural breaks analysis to observe changes in India's mortality trends during 2001-2019. We examined the time trends in the relationship between extreme temperature and mortality for 24 Indian states from 2001 to 2014. We used panel regression and spline regression models. Between 2001 and 2019, India reported 19,693 and 15,197 deaths due to heatstroke and cold exposure, respectively. Top three states with the greatest number of deaths due to heatstroke were Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab; for cold exposure it was Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Bihar. Working-age men were significantly more susceptible to heatstroke. Spline regression results indicated that mortality varied across different temperature bins for both extreme summer and winter temperatures. Our findings demonstrate an urgent need to strengthen welfare and social support systems and invest in built environment and livelihood interventions to counter the avoidable mortality from extreme temperature events.
暴露于极热和极寒温度对人类健康的影响大多是在高收入国家进行研究的。我们通过探究极端温度对印度中暑死亡和寒冷暴露死亡的影响，并按邦进行分析，来研究这种关联。我们使用了印度气象部门（IMD）的温度数据和国家犯罪记录局（NCRB）的死亡率数据，以研究总体、性别和特定年龄死亡率的趋势。我们使用结构断点分析来观察2001 - 2019年期间印度死亡率趋势的变化。我们研究了2001年至2014年印度24个邦极端温度与死亡率之间关系的时间趋势。我们使用了面板回归和样条回归模型。2001年至2019年期间，印度分别报告了19693例中暑死亡和15197例寒冷暴露死亡。中暑死亡人数最多的前三个邦是安得拉邦、北方邦和旁遮普邦；寒冷暴露死亡人数最多的是北方邦、旁遮普邦和比哈尔邦。劳动年龄男性更容易中暑。样条回归结果表明，极端夏季和冬季温度下，死亡率在不同温度区间有所不同。我们的研究结果表明，迫切需要加强福利和社会支持系统，并投资于建筑环境和生计干预措施，以应对极端温度事件造成的可避免死亡。
