Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida, 4202 E Fowler Avenue, Tampa, FL 33620, United States.
J Safety Res. 2021 Jun;77:125-138. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2021.02.010. Epub 2021 Mar 11.
Due to the myriad of unique characteristics associated with motorcycle operation, motorcycle safety is a public health concern as complex as it is serious. National crash data suggest motorcyclists are 28 times more likely to be killed when compared to passenger car occupants. In the state of Florida, motorcycle crashes are 1.5 times more likely to result in the death of the rider, placing Florida among the top deadliest states for motorcyclists in the nation. Using police-reported data from 2016, this study addresses the complex and interconnected nature of the many characteristics associated with motorcycle operation by investigating the effect of age on motorcyclists' riding behavior as it relates to injury severity for single-motorcycle crashes in the state of Florida.
To account for unobserved heterogeneity in the crash data, mixed logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances were estimated to model three injury severity outcomes (non-visible, severe, and fatal) for three age groups (under 30, 30-49, and 50 and above).
Model results indicate that age affects motorcyclists' safety perception and ability to assess risks, thereby influencing their involvement in risky behaviors. Characteristics unique to motorcycle operation-spatial characteristics, speed, motorcycle type, time of day, helmet usage, alcohol consumption, ejection from motorcycle, passenger presence, endorsement status, and lighting-are further complicated by their dependency on the characteristics of the individual motorcyclist. Age of motorcyclist indicates a relationship between motorcyclists' behavior and perceived safety.
The model results indicated that statistically significant parameters constituted different models and they were not equal across the age groups of motorcyclists: aged under 30, aged 30-49, and aged 50 and above. Through advanced econometric modeling, this study fills a gap in the existing literature and assists the safety professionals, motorcycle trainers, policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and roadway designers in developing countermeasures.
由于与摩托车操作相关的诸多独特特征，摩托车安全是一个复杂而严重的公共卫生问题。国家碰撞数据表明，与乘用车乘客相比，摩托车骑手死亡的可能性高出 28 倍。在佛罗里达州，摩托车事故导致骑手死亡的可能性高出 1.5 倍，使佛罗里达州成为全美摩托车骑手死亡最严重的州之一。本研究使用 2016 年的警方报告数据，通过调查年龄对摩托车骑手骑行行为的影响，以及与佛罗里达州单辆摩托车碰撞的伤害严重程度的关系，解决了与摩托车操作相关的许多特征的复杂和相互关联的性质。
为了说明碰撞数据中的未观测异质性，使用均值和方差异质性混合对数模型来对三个年龄组（30 岁以下、30-49 岁和 50 岁及以上）的三种伤害严重程度（非可见、严重和致命）进行建模。
模型结果表明，年龄影响摩托车骑手的安全感知和风险评估能力，从而影响他们参与危险行为的程度。摩托车操作的独特特征——空间特征、速度、摩托车类型、时间、头盔使用、酒精摄入、从摩托车上抛出、乘客存在、背书状态和照明——进一步受到摩托车骑手个体特征的影响。摩托车骑手的年龄表明了他们的行为和感知安全之间的关系。
模型结果表明，统计上显著的参数构成了不同的模型，它们在摩托车骑手的年龄组之间并不相等：30 岁以下、30-49 岁和 50 岁及以上。通过先进的计量经济学模型，本研究填补了现有文献的空白，并为安全专业人员、摩托车培训师、政策制定者、执法机构和道路设计师提供了制定对策的依据。
