Chang Fangrong, Li Maosheng, Xu Pengpeng, Zhou Hanchu, Haque Md Mazharul, Huang Helai
School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China.
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong 999077, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016 Jul 14;13(7):714. doi: 10.3390/ijerph13070714.
Issues related to motorcycle safety in China have not received enough research attention. As such, the causal relationship between injury outcomes of motorcycle crashes and potential risk factors remains unknown. This study intended to investigate the injury risk of motorcyclists involved in road traffic crashes in China. To account for the ordinal nature of response outcomes and unobserved heterogeneity, a mixed ordered logit model was employed. Given that the crash occurrence process is different between intersections and non-intersections, separate models were developed for these locations to independently estimate the impacts of various contributing factors on motorcycle riders' injury severity. The analysis was based on the police-reported crash dataset obtained from the Traffic Administration Bureau of Hunan Provincial Public Security Ministry. Factors associated with a substantially higher probability of fatalities and severe injuries included motorcycle riders older than 60 years, the absence of helmets, motorcycle riders identified to be equal duty, and when a motorcycle collided with a heavy vehicle during the night time without lighting. Crashes occurred along county roads with curve and slope alignment or at regions with higher GDP were associated with an elevated risk of fatality of motorcycle riders, while unsignalized intersections were related to less severe injuries. Findings of this study are beneficial in forming several targeted countermeasures for motorcycle safety in China, including designing roads with appropriate road delineation and street lighting, strict enforcement for speeding and red light violations, promoting helmet usage, and improving the conspicuity of motorcyclists.
中国摩托车安全相关问题尚未得到足够的研究关注。因此，摩托车碰撞事故的伤害后果与潜在风险因素之间的因果关系仍不明确。本研究旨在调查中国道路交通事故中摩托车驾乘者的伤害风险。为了考虑响应结果的有序性质和未观察到的异质性，采用了混合有序logit模型。鉴于交叉路口和非交叉路口的碰撞发生过程不同，针对这些地点分别建立模型，以独立估计各种影响因素对摩托车驾乘者伤害严重程度的影响。分析基于从湖南省公安厅交通管理局获得的警方报告的碰撞事故数据集。与死亡和重伤概率显著较高相关的因素包括60岁以上的摩托车驾乘者、未佩戴头盔、被认定负有同等责任的摩托车驾乘者，以及摩托车在夜间未开灯时与重型车辆相撞。发生在有弯道和坡度的县道上或GDP较高地区的碰撞事故与摩托车驾乘者死亡风险升高相关，而无信号灯控制的交叉路口与不太严重的伤害相关。本研究结果有助于形成中国摩托车安全的若干针对性对策，包括设计具有适当道路标线和路灯的道路、严格执法打击超速和闯红灯行为、推广头盔使用，以及提高摩托车驾乘者的醒目性。
