What determines violent behavior in men? Predicting physical, psychological, and sexual violent offending based on classification and regression tree analysis.

Despite compelling evidence that victimization and offending co-occur, it remains unclear what types of victimization are linked to specific forms of perpetration. Here we examined the relationship between physical, psychological, and sexual violence with respect to influencing variables including mental health, risk-taking behaviors, and coping strategies. Data from 5385 men were collected as part of an epidemiological study on violence experience. A classification and regression tree analysis identified the main predictors of violence perpetration and classified violent offending into high- and low-risk groups. Results indicate that violence is best predicted by previous exposure to violence and polyvictimization. Physical violence is best predicted by prior exposure to physical violence and this is further influenced by the frequency of and the age at which violence was experienced. Drug use was a strong predictor of physical and psychological violence. The latter is best predicted by a history of polyvictimization, the severity and the originator of violence. Sexual violence is strongly predicted by one's sexual violence experience. Other factors such as demographic characteristics are less predictive. Our results may contribute to the development of early prevention and intervention approaches that account for different risk factors. The significance of violence exposure suggest that intervention measures must focus on victims of early and prolonged experience of violence. On the strength of the link between drug use and violence, exposure to violence should be considered in drug prevention and intervention and vice versa.