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季节性变化在北美的平交道口碰撞率是由于天气,而不是昼长。

Seasonal variation in North American level crossing crash rates is due to weather, not day length.

机构信息

Transportation Safety Board of Canada, Gatineau, Quebec, Canada.

出版信息

Traffic Inj Prev. 2021;22(6):467-472. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2021.1922681. Epub 2021 Jun 7.

DOI:10.1080/15389588.2021.1922681
PMID:34097544
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

Collisions between road vehicles and trains at level (grade) crossings can be devastating. Injury and economic considerations make prevention efforts of significant interest to society at all levels, and raise important safety concerns. Improving our understanding of the nature and pattern of crashes at level crossings can help inform a variety of types of safety mitigation strategies, including public education, crossing equipment and vehicle design efforts.

METHOD

To this end, a database search of Canadian level crossing crashes for the 11-year period between 2007 and 2017 was conducted to confirm a previously identified seasonal variation in the frequency of level crossing crashes. To determine whether the observed winter increase in crashes was due primarily to winter reductions in light levels/day length or to other seasonal weather factors, a subsequent comparison of Canadian data to American Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) crash data was carried out. A separate inferential log-linear model analysis, using season, time of day and crossing protection type, was also used to explore the increase.

RESULTS

As expected, the average rate of crossing collisions in Canada increased during winter months compared to non-winter months. While the seasonal pattern was evident in those U.S. states that experience significant changes in weather patterns (i.e., northern states), it was almost completely absent in those states that do not (i.e., southern states). The log-linear model analysis confirmed these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The seasonal variation in North American level crossing crash rate is a result of winter weather conditions, rather than differences in light levels. Future research is planned that will elucidate the specific environmental and human factors contributing to the increase.

摘要

目的

道路车辆与火车在平交道口发生碰撞可能会造成严重后果。从受伤和经济角度考虑,各级社会都非常关注预防工作,这也引发了重要的安全问题。深入了解平交道口事故的性质和模式有助于为各种类型的安全缓解策略提供信息,包括公众教育、道口设备和车辆设计工作。

方法

为此,对 2007 年至 2017 年期间的 11 年加拿大平交道口事故进行了数据库搜索,以确认之前在平交道口事故频率方面观察到的季节性变化。为了确定观察到的冬季事故增加主要是由于冬季光照水平/昼长的减少还是由于其他季节性天气因素,随后对加拿大数据与美国联邦铁路管理局(FRA)的事故数据进行了比较。还使用季节、一天中的时间和道口保护类型进行了单独的推断对数线性模型分析,以探讨这种增加的原因。

结果

正如预期的那样,与非冬季月份相比,加拿大冬季道口碰撞的平均发生率有所增加。虽然在美国那些经历天气模式显著变化的州(即北部各州)中,这种季节性模式很明显,但在那些天气模式没有显著变化的州(即南部各州)中,这种模式几乎完全不存在。对数线性模型分析证实了这些发现。

结论

北美平交道口碰撞率的季节性变化是冬季天气条件的结果,而不是光照水平的差异。计划进行未来的研究,以阐明导致这种增加的具体环境和人为因素。

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