Laboratory of Food Microbiology and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, 54124, Greece.
Hellenic Food Authority (EFET), Greece.
Food Microbiol. 2021 Oct;99:103800. doi: 10.1016/j.fm.2021.103800. Epub 2021 Apr 9.
A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model predicting the listeriosis risk related to the consumption of Ready- To- Eat (RTE) cooked meat products sliced at retail stores in Greece was developed. The probability of illness per serving assessed for 87 products available in the Greek market was found highly related to the nitrite concentration; products having a lower concentration showed a higher risk per serving. The predicted 95 percentiles of the annual listeriosis cases totaled 33 of which 13 cases were <65 years old and 20 cases ≥65 years old. The highest number of cases was predicted for mortadella, smoked turkey, boiled turkey and parizer, which were the most frequently consumed product categories. Two scenarios for assessing potential interventions to reduce the risk were tested: setting a use-by date of 14 days (these products have no use-by date based on current European Union legislation) and improving the temperature control during domestic storage. The two scenarios resulted in a decrease of the 95 and 99 percentiles of the total annual cases by 97% and 88%, respectively.
建立了一个定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 模型，用于预测与在希腊零售商店切片的即食 (RTE) 熟肉产品消费相关的李斯特菌病风险。评估 87 种在希腊市场上可获得的产品的每一份疾病概率与亚硝酸盐浓度密切相关；浓度较低的产品每份风险更高。预测的年度李斯特菌病病例的 95%上限总计为 33 例，其中 13 例年龄<65 岁，20 例年龄≥65 岁。预测病例数最多的是意大利辣香肠、烟熏火鸡、煮火鸡和帕尔米萨干酪，这些是最常消费的产品类别。测试了两种评估潜在干预措施以降低风险的情景：设定 14 天的使用期限（这些产品根据现行欧盟法规没有使用期限）和改善家庭储存过程中的温度控制。这两种情景分别使总年度病例的 95%和 99%上限降低了 97%和 88%。
