Department of Chemistry, University of Crete, Heraklion 70013, Greece; Medicina Veterinaria, Laboratorio di Ispezione degli Alimenti di Origine Animale, Universita degli Studi di Perugia, 06126 Perugia, Italy; European Food Safety Authority, EU-FORA Programme, Parma, 43126, Italy.
Medicina Veterinaria, Laboratorio di Ispezione degli Alimenti di Origine Animale, Universita degli Studi di Perugia, 06126 Perugia, Italy.
Int J Food Microbiol. 2022 Oct 16;379:109843. doi: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2022.109843. Epub 2022 Jul 29.
Ready to Eat (RTE) cooked meat products are among the most consumed RTE food subcategories in the EU/EEA. They are also associated with the highest number of identified listeriosis cases per year (>850), thus posing a public health risk especially among the susceptible population. This study estimated the risk of listeriosis from Italian head cheese (Coppa di Testa) consumption using a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) based on data of prevalence and starting concentrations of Listeria monocytogenes in the product during a 3-year period (n = 1568). A consumer survey (n = 162) was conducted to provide information on domestic storage time and consumption habits, and storage conditions were determined from recordings of temperatures of domestic refrigerators (n = 57). A probabilistic model was designed for the evaluation of the growth of L. monocytogenes at each stage of the product pathway from production to consumption, using Monte Carlo simulations and employing the @Risk software. Risks associated to consumption of vacuum-packed and sliced-at-retail head cheese were assessed: The model predicted that the risk of listeriosis per serving of vacuum-packed product was in the 10 and 10 range (mean) for the high-risk and general populations respectively, and listeriosis cases were estimated to be greater than those due to consumption of sliced product (with risks in the range of 10 and 10). Overall, the model predicted that the mean number of listeriosis cases ranged from 0.001 to 0.24 and from 0.06 to 10 per one hundred thousand people, for the healthy and the high-risk population, respectively. Scenario analyses indicated that better control of the temperature of domestic refrigerators is effective in reducing the predicted risk of listeriosis for the longer stored vacuum-packed product by ~80 % for both the healthy and high-risk populations, whereas a shorter use-by-date of 30 days is an effective risk mitigation measure for both types of packed product. Model assumptions, as well as data gaps are discussed.
即食（RTE）熟肉制品是欧盟/欧洲经济区消费最多的 RTE 食品之一。它们也是每年确定的李斯特菌病例数最多的食品（>850 例），因此对易感人群构成公共健康风险。本研究使用基于产品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌流行率和起始浓度的 3 年数据（n=1568）的定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）来估计食用意大利头奶酪（Coppa di Testa）的李斯特菌病风险。进行了一项消费者调查（n=162），以提供有关国内储存时间和消费习惯的信息，并从家庭冰箱温度记录（n=57）中确定储存条件。设计了一个概率模型，用于从生产到消费的每个产品阶段评估单核细胞增生李斯特菌的生长，使用蒙特卡罗模拟和@Risk 软件。评估了真空包装和零售切片头奶酪的消费风险：该模型预测，高风险和一般人群食用真空包装产品的每一份李斯特菌病风险分别在 10 和 10 范围内（平均值），并且估计李斯特菌病病例数大于食用切片产品的风险（风险范围在 10 和 10 之间）。总体而言，模型预测健康人群和高风险人群的李斯特菌病病例平均数量分别为每 10 万人 0.001 至 0.24 和 0.06 至 10。情景分析表明，更好地控制家用冰箱的温度可有效降低储存时间较长的真空包装产品的预测李斯特菌病风险，对于健康人群和高风险人群，分别降低约 80%；而将使用期限缩短至 30 天对于两种包装产品都是有效的风险缓解措施。讨论了模型假设和数据差距。
