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使用多标准决策分析的非货币估值:采用证据强度方法为备选方案之间的选择提供依据。

Non-monetary valuation using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Using a strength-of-evidence approach to inform choices among alternatives.

作者信息

Martin D M, Mazzotta M

机构信息

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Atlantic Ecology Division, 27 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, RI 02882, U.S.A.

出版信息

Ecosyst Serv. 2018;33:124-133. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.06.001.

Abstract

This article demonstrates an approach to Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis that compares non-monetary ecosystem service (ES) outcomes for environmental decision making. ES outcomes are often inadequately defined and characterized by imprecision and uncertainty. Outranking methods enrich our understanding of the imperfect knowledge of ES outcomes by allowing decision makers to closely examine and apply preference measures to relationships among the outcomes. We explain the methodological assumptions related to the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) method, and apply it to a wetland restoration planning study in Rhode Island, USA. In the study, we partnered with a watershed management organization to evaluate four wetland restoration alternatives for their abilities to supply five ES: flood water regulation, scenic landscapes, learning opportunities, recreation, and birds. Twenty-two benefit indicators were identified for the ES as well as one indicator for social equity and one indicator for reliability of ES provision. We developed preference functions to characterize the strength of evidence across estimated indicator values between pairs of alternatives. We ranked the alternatives based on these preferences and weights on ES relevant to different planning contexts. We discuss successes and challenges of implementing PROMETHEE, including feedback from our partners who utilized the methods.

摘要

本文展示了一种多标准决策分析方法,该方法用于比较非货币化的生态系统服务(ES)结果,以辅助环境决策。ES结果往往定义不充分,且具有不精确性和不确定性。优势排序方法通过让决策者仔细检查并将偏好度量应用于结果之间的关系,丰富了我们对ES结果不完美知识的理解。我们解释了与用于充实评价的偏好排序组织方法(PROMETHEE)相关的方法假设,并将其应用于美国罗德岛的一项湿地恢复规划研究。在该研究中,我们与一个流域管理组织合作,评估了四种湿地恢复方案提供五种ES的能力:洪水调节、风景景观、学习机会、娱乐和鸟类。为这些ES确定了22个效益指标,以及一个社会公平指标和一个ES提供可靠性指标。我们开发了偏好函数,以描述各备选方案对之间估计指标值的证据强度。我们根据这些偏好以及与不同规划背景相关的ES权重对备选方案进行了排序。我们讨论了实施PROMETHEE的成功经验和挑战,包括来自使用这些方法的合作伙伴的反馈。

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