Dasari Hari Prasad, Desamsetti Srinivas, Langodan Sabique, Viswanadhapalli Yesubabu, Hoteit Ibrahim
Physical Science and Engineering Division King Abdullah University of Science and Technology Thuwal Saudi Arabia.
National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) Noida India.
Geohealth. 2021 Jun 1;5(6):e2020GH000370. doi: 10.1029/2020GH000370. eCollection 2021 Jun.
In this study, the variability and trends of the outdoor thermal discomfort index (DI) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) were analyzed over the 39-year period of 1980-2018. The hourly DI was estimated based on air temperature and relative humidity data obtained from the next-generation global reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and in-house high-resolution regional reanalysis generated using an assimilative Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. The DI exceeds 28°C, that is, the threshold for human discomfort, in all summer months (June to September) over most parts of the KSA due to a combination of consistently high temperatures and relative humidity. The DI is greater than 28°C for 8-16 h over the western parts of KSA and north of the central Red Sea. A DI of >28°C persistes for 7-9 h over the Red Sea and western KSA for 90% of summer days. The spatial extent and number of days with DI > 30°C, that is, the threshold for severe human discomfort, are significantly lower than those with DI > 28°C. Long-term trends in the number of days with DI > 28°C indicate a reduced rate of increase or even a decrease over some parts of the southwestern KSA in recent decades (1999-2018). Areas with DI > 30°C, in particular the northwestern regions of the Arabian Gulf and its adjoining regions, also showed improved comfort levels during recent decades. Significant increases in population and urbanization have been reported throughout the KSA during the study period. Analysis of five-years clinical data suggests a positive correlation between higher temperatures and humidity with heat-related deaths during the Hajj pilgrimage. The information provided herein is expected to aid national authorities and policymakers in developing necessary strategies to mitigate the exposure of humans to high levels of thermal discomfort in the KSA.
在本研究中，分析了1980 - 2018年这39年间沙特阿拉伯王国（KSA）室外热不适指数（DI）的变异性和趋势。每小时的DI是根据从欧洲中期天气预报中心的下一代全球再分析以及使用同化气象研究预报（WRF）模型生成的内部高分辨率区域再分析中获得的气温和相对湿度数据估算得出的。由于持续高温和相对湿度的综合影响，在沙特阿拉伯王国大部分地区的所有夏季月份（6月至9月），DI超过28°C，即人体不适阈值。在沙特阿拉伯王国西部和红海中部以北地区，DI大于28°C的时长为8 - 16小时。在红海和沙特阿拉伯王国西部，90%的夏日里DI > 28°C的情况会持续7 - 9小时。DI > 30°C（即严重人体不适阈值）的空间范围和天数显著低于DI > 28°C的情况。DI > 28°C天数的长期趋势表明，近几十年来（1999 - 2018年）沙特阿拉伯王国西南部部分地区的增长速度有所下降，甚至出现减少。DI > 30°C的地区，特别是阿拉伯湾西北部地区及其毗邻地区，近几十年来舒适度也有所改善。研究期间，整个沙特阿拉伯王国都有关于人口和城市化显著增加的报告。对五年临床数据的分析表明，较高的温度和湿度与朝觐期间与热相关的死亡之间存在正相关。本文提供的信息有望帮助国家当局和政策制定者制定必要的策略，以减轻沙特阿拉伯王国居民遭受高水平热不适的影响。
