Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering DICEM, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Cassino, Italy.
Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering DICEA, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2021;22(6):449-454. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2021.1935904. Epub 2021 Jun 24.
Given the strong relationship between road accident and traffic speed, the evaluation and prediction of this latter have always been considered as a critical issue for road safety analysis and for the evaluation of road network safety improvements. Prediction models developed to date mainly focused on spot speed in a rural environment or on running speed in an urban one. Very few analyze the speed estimation in "transition" areas. The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized speed estimation model able to predict mean speed in urban, rural, and "transition" environment as a function of road layout characteristics. It is believed that the proposed estimation tool can be effectively employed by road engineers in the road safety design and retrofitting stage.
The basic idea of the paper is to shed some light on this issue by making use of a hybrid estimation approach able to combine the information gathered from both previously mentioned models within a generalized speed adaptation framework that reflects road user behavior. The calibration and validation of the generalized estimation model have been carried out following a collection of Floating Car Data (FCD) on several candidate sites.
Preliminary results seem to indicate that the methodology proposed may be effective in estimating the spot speed in two-lane rural and urban arterials.
FCD data can be useful to develop more efficient estimation models to better manage the safety of urban and rural roads.
鉴于道路事故与交通速度之间存在很强的关系，评估和预测后者一直被视为道路安全分析和评估道路网络安全改进的关键问题。迄今为止开发的预测模型主要侧重于农村环境中的点速度或城市环境中的行驶速度。很少有分析“过渡”区域的速度估计。本文的目的是开发一种通用的速度估计模型，能够根据道路布局特征预测城市、农村和“过渡”环境中的平均速度。据信，所提出的估计工具可以由道路工程师在道路安全设计和改造阶段有效使用。
本文的基本思路是通过利用一种混合估计方法来解决这个问题，该方法能够在通用的速度适应框架内结合来自上述两种模型的信息，该框架反映了道路使用者的行为。已经在几个候选站点上使用浮动车数据 (FCD) 进行了通用估计模型的校准和验证。
初步结果似乎表明，所提出的方法在估计双车道农村和城市干道的点速度方面可能是有效的。
FCD 数据可用于开发更有效的估计模型，以更好地管理城市和农村道路的安全。
