Department of Geography, Rutgers University-New Brunswick, Piscataway, NJ 08854;
Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Jul 6;118(27). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2023212118.
In this perspective, we draw on recent scientific research on the coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemic that severely impacted several countries across Latin America and the Caribbean over the last decade, to explore how the socioeconomic impacts from COVID-19 could lead to the reemergence of another rust epidemic. We describe how past CLR outbreaks have been linked to reduced crop care and investment in coffee farms, as evidenced in the years following the 2008 global financial crisis. We discuss relationships between CLR incidence, farmer-scale agricultural practices, and economic signals transferred through global and local effects. We contextualize how current COVID-19 impacts on labor, unemployment, stay-at-home orders, and international border policies could affect farmer investments in coffee plants and in turn create conditions favorable for future shocks. We conclude by arguing that COVID-19's socioeconomic disruptions are likely to drive the coffee industry into another severe production crisis. While this argument illustrates the vulnerabilities that come from a globalized coffee system, it also highlights the necessity of ensuring the well-being of all. By increasing investments in coffee institutions and paying smallholders more, we can create a fairer and healthier system that is more resilient to future social-ecological shocks.
在这篇观点文章中，我们借鉴了最近关于咖啡叶锈病（CLR）疫情的科学研究，该疫情在过去十年中严重影响了拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的多个国家，探讨了 COVID-19 的社会经济影响如何导致另一场锈病疫情的再次出现。我们描述了过去的 CLR 爆发如何与减少作物护理和对咖啡农场的投资有关，这在 2008 年全球金融危机后的几年中得到了证实。我们讨论了 CLR 发病率、农民规模农业实践以及通过全球和地方效应传递的经济信号之间的关系。我们将当前 COVID-19 对劳动力、失业、居家令和国际边境政策的影响如何影响农民对咖啡种植的投资，并进而创造有利于未来冲击的条件的情况进行了背景化处理。我们的结论是，COVID-19 的社会经济破坏可能会导致咖啡行业再次陷入严重的生产危机。虽然这一论点说明了全球化咖啡系统带来的脆弱性，但它也强调了确保所有人福祉的必要性。通过增加对咖啡机构的投资并为小农支付更高的价格，我们可以创建一个更公平、更健康的系统，使其对未来的社会生态冲击更具弹性。
