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利用机器学习评估墨西哥新冠病毒(SARS-CoV-2)肺炎患者中增加死亡风险的主要状况

Estimation of the main conditions in (SARS-CoV-2) Covid-19 patients that increase the risk of death using Machine learning, the case of Mexico.

作者信息

Guzmán-Torres José A, Alonso-Guzmán Elia M, Domínguez-Mota Francisco J, Tinoco-Guerrero Gerardo

机构信息

Faculty of Civil Engineering, UMSNH, Mexico.

Faculty of Mathematical and Physics Science, UMSNH, Mexico.

出版信息

Results Phys. 2021 Aug;27:104483. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104483. Epub 2021 Jun 24.

Abstract

Nowadays, society faces a catastrophic problem related to respiratory syndrome due to the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: the Covid-19 disease. This virus has changed our coexistence rules and, in consequence, has reshaped the daily activities in modern societies. Thus, there are many efforts to understand the virus behaviour in order to reduce its negative impact, and these efforts produce an incredible amount of information and data sources every week. Data scientists, which use techniques such as Machine learning, are focusing their abilities to develop mathematical models for analysing this critical situation. This paper uses Machine Learning techniques as tools to help understand some specific new patterns in Covid patients that arise from unknown complex interactions in the transmission-dynamic models of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and their relation with the corresponding social contact patterns which are often known or can be inferred from populations variables. One of the main motivations of this research is to find the diseases that cause an increase in the risk of death in infected people with the Covid-19 virus. Mexico is the case of study in this research. The general conditions of health that cause death are well known generally in the world. However, these conditions in each country can differ depending on different factors such as the general health status of people. The results show that the principal causes of death in Mexico are related to age, bad eating habits, chronic diseases, and contact with infected people having not proper care. Results from the analysis show a remarkable accuracy of 87%, which is considered satisfactory.

摘要

如今,社会面临着一个与新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2引起的呼吸综合征相关的灾难性问题:新冠肺炎疾病。这种病毒改变了我们的共存规则,因此重塑了现代社会的日常活动。因此,为了减少其负面影响,人们做出了许多努力来了解病毒的行为,而且这些努力每周都会产生大量的信息和数据来源。运用机器学习等技术的数据科学家们正集中精力开发数学模型来分析这一危急情况。本文将机器学习技术用作工具,以帮助理解新冠肺炎患者中一些特定的新模式,这些模式源自SARS-CoV-2病毒传播动力学模型中未知的复杂相互作用,以及它们与相应社交接触模式的关系,这些社交接触模式通常是已知的,或者可以从人群变量中推断出来。这项研究的主要动机之一是找出那些会增加新冠肺炎病毒感染者死亡风险的疾病。墨西哥是本研究的案例。导致死亡的总体健康状况在世界范围内通常是众所周知的。然而,每个国家的这些状况可能因不同因素而有所不同,比如人们的总体健康状况。结果表明,墨西哥的主要死亡原因与年龄、不良饮食习惯、慢性病以及与未得到妥善护理的感染者接触有关。分析结果显示出87%的显著准确率,这被认为是令人满意的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ab79/8223079/6117ac46a96b/gr1_lrg.jpg

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