Instituto Mauá de Tecnologia, Electrical Engineering, São Caetano do Sul, Brazil.
Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2021 Jul 1;16(7):e0253146. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253146. eCollection 2021.
This work presents a practical proposal for estimating health system utilization for COVID-19 cases. The novel methodology developed is based on the dynamic model known as Susceptible, Infected, Removed and Dead (SIRD). The model was modified to focus on the healthcare system dynamics, rather than modeling all cases of the disease. It was tuned using data available for each Brazilian state and updated with daily figures. A figure of merit that assesses the quality of the model fit to the data was defined and used to optimize the free parameters. The parameters of an epidemiological model for the whole of Brazil, comprising a linear combination of the models for each state, were estimated considering the data available for the 26 Brazilian states. The model was validated, and strong adherence was demonstrated in most cases.
本工作提出了一种用于估计 COVID-19 病例卫生系统利用情况的实用建议。所开发的新颖方法基于称为易感者、感染者、移除者和死亡者（SIRD）的动态模型。该模型经过修改，侧重于医疗保健系统动态，而不是对所有疾病病例进行建模。它使用每个巴西州可用的数据进行了调整，并每日更新数据。定义了一个用于评估模型对数据拟合质量的度量标准，并用于优化自由参数。考虑到巴西 26 个州可用的数据，对包含各州模型线性组合的整个巴西的流行病学模型的参数进行了估计。对该模型进行了验证，在大多数情况下均显示出了很强的一致性。
