Yan Chengcai, Hao Haiting, Wang Zhe, Sha Shuaishuai, Zhang Yiwen, Wang Qingpeng, Kang Zhensheng, Huang Lili, Wang Lan, Feng Hongzu
Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China.
Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Crop Pests in Alar, Ministry of Agriculture, College of Agronomy, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China.
J Fungi (Basel). 2023 Jul 11;9(7):739. doi: 10.3390/jof9070739.
Years of outbreaks of woody canker () in the United States, Iran, and China have resulted in massive economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees. However, only limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat requirements have not been well evaluated due to a lack of research. In recent years, scientists have utilized the MaxEnt model to estimate the effect of global temperature and specific environmental conditions on species distribution. Using occurrence and high resolution ecological data, we predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of under twelve climate change scenarios by applying the MaxEnt model. We identified climatic factors, geography, soil, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. Then, we measured the suitable habitat area, the ratio of change in the area of suitable habitat, the expansion and shrinkage of maps under climate change, the direction and distance of range changes from the present to the end of the twenty-first century, and the effect of environmental variables. is mostly widespread in high-suitability regions in northwestern China, the majority of Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkey, northern Chile, southwestern Argentina, and the west coast of California in the United States. Under future climatic conditions, climate changes of varied intensities favored the expansion of suitable habitats for in China. However, appropriate land areas are diminishing globally. The trend in migration is toward latitudes and elevations that are higher. The estimated area of possible suitability shifted eastward in China. The results of the present study are valuable not only for countries such as Morocco, Spain, Chile, Turkey, Kazakhstan, etc., where the infection has not yet fully spread or been established, but also for nations where the species has been discovered. Authorities should take steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to restrict the spread of . Countries with highly appropriate locations should increase their surveillance, risk assessment, and response capabilities.
美国、伊朗和中国多年来爆发的木本溃疡病已给生物林和果树造成了巨大经济损失。然而，关于它们的分布情况，目前仅有有限的信息，并且由于缺乏研究，它们的栖息地需求尚未得到充分评估。近年来，科学家们利用最大熵模型来估计全球温度和特定环境条件对物种分布的影响。利用出现情况和高分辨率生态数据，我们通过应用最大熵模型预测了在12种气候变化情景下木本溃疡病的时空分布。我们确定了影响其分布范围的气候因素、地理、土壤和土地覆盖情况，并确定了其栖息地范围的变化。然后，我们测量了适宜栖息地面积、适宜栖息地面积变化率、气候变化下地图的扩张和收缩情况、从当前到21世纪末分布范围变化的方向和距离，以及环境变量的影响。木本溃疡病在中国西北部、伊朗大部分地区、阿富汗、土耳其、智利北部、阿根廷西南部以及美国加利福尼亚州西海岸的高适宜性地区最为普遍。在未来气候条件下，不同强度的气候变化有利于中国木本溃疡病适宜栖息地的扩张。然而，全球范围内适宜的土地面积正在减少。迁移趋势是向更高的纬度和海拔地区。在中国，预计可能适宜的区域向东转移。本研究结果不仅对摩洛哥、西班牙、智利、土耳其、哈萨克斯坦等尚未完全传播或尚未确立感染的国家有价值，对已发现该物种的国家也有价值。各国政府应采取措施减少温室气体排放，以限制木本溃疡病的传播。处于高度适宜位置的国家应提高其监测、风险评估和应对能力。
