.
Acta Biomed. 2021 Jul 1;92(3):e2021188. doi: 10.23750/abm.v92i3.10323.
processing the heterogeneous data on the Italian Covid-19 epidemic by fractal investigation on the trend curve of the ratio between new Covid19 cases/new Sars-Cov-2 tests.
New cases of Covid-19 disease and new tests were calculated from raw data freely available on the Italian governing website. The effectiveness of Italian government Decrees aiming to obtain lock-down was assessed by fractal investigation. Self-similarity parameters of presumed fractal shapes obtained 6 days after each Decree were estimated, when possible. Self-organized criticality was also assessed to check for chaos involvement in disturbing the fractal shapes. Shapes were then compared and were used to estimate the number of new tests for Sars-Cov-2 that Italy would be able to perform.
The full lock-down changed the biocomplexity of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy. If the biocomplexity of Covid-19 did not change after the lock-down, Italy should have been able to perform at least 25490 tests daily (±8940) on average, while real data show that a larger number of tests were done (p<0.001) (thereby obtaining the lowering of contagions). If the same biocomplexity was observed before full lock down, Italy would be able to perform 7088 tests daily (±5163) on average, while real data show that a lower number of tests were done (p=0.029) (thereby observing the worsening of contagions).
in case of heterogeneous data, fractal investigation would be prove useful for assessing and estimating trends.
通过对新冠病毒病例与新冠病毒检测新病例之比的趋势曲线进行分形分析，处理意大利新冠疫情的异质数据。
从意大利政府网站上免费提供的原始数据中计算新冠病毒病例和新检测数。通过分形分析评估旨在实现封锁的意大利政府法令的效果。在可能的情况下，估计在每个法令发布后第 6 天获得的假定分形形状的自相似性参数。还评估了自组织临界性，以检查混沌是否参与扰乱分形形状。然后比较形状，并用于估计意大利能够进行的新冠病毒检测数量。
全面封锁改变了意大利新冠疫情的生物复杂性。如果封锁后新冠疫情的生物复杂性没有改变，意大利平均每天应该能够进行至少 25490 次检测（±8940），而实际数据显示进行了更多的检测（p<0.001）（从而降低了感染率）。如果在全面封锁之前观察到相同的生物复杂性，意大利平均每天应该能够进行 7088 次检测（±5163），而实际数据显示进行了更少的检测（p=0.029）（从而观察到感染率的恶化）。
在异质数据的情况下，分形分析将有助于评估和估计趋势。
