Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, UK; Institute of Genetics and Cancer, Cancer Research UK Edinburgh Centre, UK.
Institute of Genetics and Cancer, Cancer Research UK Edinburgh Centre, UK.
Prev Med. 2021 Oct;151:106585. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2021.106585. Epub 2021 Jun 30.
The COVID-19 pandemic affects mortality and morbidity, with disruptions expected to continue for some time, with access to timely cancer-related services a concern. For breast cancer, early detection and treatment is key to improved survival and longer-term quality of life. Health services generally have been strained and in many settings with population breast mammography screening, efforts to diagnose and treat breast cancers earlier have been paused or have had reduced capacity. The resulting delays to diagnosis and treatment may lead to more intensive treatment requirements and, potentially, increased mortality. Modelled evaluations can support responses to the pandemic by estimating short- and long-term outcomes for various scenarios. Multiple calibrated and validated models exist for breast cancer screening, and some have been applied in 2020 to estimate the impact of breast screening disruptions and compare options for recovery, in a range of international settings. On behalf of the Covid and Cancer Modelling Consortium (CCGMC) Working Group 2 (Breast Cancer), we summarize and provide examples of such in a range of settings internationally, and propose priorities for future modelling exercises. International expert collaborations from the CCGMC Working Group 2 (Breast Cancer) will conduct analyses and modelling studies needed to inform key stakeholders recovery efforts in order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on early diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.
COVID-19 大流行对死亡率和发病率产生影响，预计这种影响将持续一段时间，人们对能否获得及时的癌症相关服务感到担忧。对于乳腺癌，早期发现和治疗是提高生存率和改善长期生活质量的关键。卫生服务机构普遍承受着压力，在许多进行人群乳腺癌筛查的地区，诊断和治疗乳腺癌的工作已经暂停或能力有所下降。由此导致的诊断和治疗延迟可能导致更强化的治疗需求，并可能导致死亡率上升。建模评估可以通过估计各种情况下的短期和长期结果来支持对大流行的应对。有多个经过校准和验证的乳腺癌筛查模型，其中一些已在 2020 年用于估计乳腺癌筛查中断的影响，并在一系列国际环境中比较恢复的选择方案。代表 Covid 和癌症建模联合会（CCGMC）工作组 2（乳腺癌），我们总结并提供了在国际范围内的一系列环境中的此类模型示例，并为未来的建模工作提出了重点建议。CCGMC 工作组 2（乳腺癌）的国际专家合作将进行分析和建模研究，为利益攸关方的恢复工作提供信息，以减轻大流行对早期诊断和治疗乳腺癌的影响。
